FINALLY, the Real Story on Injuries

[OldFatGuy]

Finally, apples to apples.

Wow, thanks to JayC for pointing out the official index of baseball transactions. You know, I considered myself following baseball closely because I read the sports section daily and read box scores and even that little section titled "transactions." Well, guess what folks, that little section in your local paper (mine being the Washington Post) DOES NOT include all of MLB transactions. I guess they just choose what they consider to be "newsworthy" transactions. Anyway, here is the official count.

I counted the new number of instances of players being placed on the DL in RL MLB. I didn't use April because that would include transactions from prior seasons and pre-season, and I didn't use June because its only half over.

Well, in RL MLB, there were 79 new instances of injuries severe enough to be placed on the DL. In my 1971 Senators league, I checked the transactions for May 1971 in my league and there were 63. My league only has 24 teams whereas RL MLB has 30, the difference in those numbers is so small as to be what statisticians call "statistically insignificant." (Sorry, Statistics 101 flashbacks).

So, I feel I now know that at default level the injury frequency, at least for my 1971 league, are amazingly close to reality. Great job programmers of MB08. (Still some problems though, it does count earned runs incorrectly, among frustrating AI issues, though AI is the toughest thing to code).
Anyway, thanks to all.

[robinhoodnik]

The usual issue is the who and severity of the injuries. They seem to hit mostly "indispensible" players, and often during a penant run. Second is the severity of the injuries. You can get whacked at a ridiculous rate, up to, and including losing a whole starting rotation and several replacements. That was an extreme case, but it's common to have several team MVP candidates all sitting out for extended periods at the same time. Sometimes for several seasons in a row you get dealt the "injury bug". You may want to drop severity down a little to avoid the issue.

[JayC]

They seem to hit mostly "indispensible" players, and often during a penant run.

"Seem to" most likely is perception; those are the ones that are remembered.

That'd be much harder to demonstrate than the frequency issue, and I'm not going to try because my own observation is that those issues are not the case. And I absolutely do not believe that the game is programmed to give more -- or more severe -- injuries to key players, or to increase the number or severity of injuries during a pennant race or any other time of the year. There'd be no logic behind doing either of those things. And no reason to do it, either.

But Clay could probably come here himself and say that the game is not programmed that way and people would still believe that it is -- because they've "seen it happen." Perception is everything.

[OldFatGuy]

Sorry. Just wanted to make the point clear because I too incorrectly initially believed injury frequency was too high.
In May 2007, in RL MLB there were about 79 instances (I may have missed by 1 or 2 when going through the entire list of transactions for May 2007) of new injuries severe enough for placement on the DL. In my league, where I was sure it was high because every day there was at least one, sometimes two or more EVERY day, there were 63 instances of new injuries severe enough for placement on the DL. That works out to 79 divided by 30 teams = 2.633333 instances per team per month in RL. In my 1971 league with 24 teams and 63 instances, it equals 2.625 instances per team per month. Almost exactly like RL. So, in this small sample size, even though I was CONVINCED injury frequency was high, it was in fact almost EXACTLY right.

Also, want to reiterate we're talking injury frequency here, not severity. That's why number of people on DL is not the thing to compare. For example, suppose both May and June were exactly the same for both of the above examples and in RL all of those 79 injuries in May were not severe enough for any of them to still be on the DL July 1st. So on July 1st, all those 79 would be gone, only those from June injuries would be there thus only 79 players (Junes new injuries) would be on DL. But suppose the severity in my 1971 league was such that all 63 were severe enough to still be there on July 1st. Then my league would include those 63 on the DL plus the 63 in Junes and result in 126 being on the DL on July 1st. Thus one would incorrectly conclude there are more injuries in BM08 than in RL when in fact the number of injuries is almost exactly the same. (Sorry for the length, I get diarhea of the mouth, er keyboard sometimes)

[robinhoodnik]

But Clay could probably come here himself and say that the game is not programmed that way and people would still believe that it is -- because they've "seen it happen." Perception is everything.

He has, and the evidence over years and years of playing BM, is that very often, it does happen. But hey, if it hasn't happened to you personally, it doesn't happen.

[HoustonGM]

He has, and the evidence over years and years of playing BM, is that very often, it does happen. But hey, if it hasn't happened to you personally, it doesn't happen.
It has happened to me in some sims, and others, it hasn't happened. I highly doubt Clay programmed anything into the game to cause increased injury rates during penant races, and I MORE highly doubt that he'd code anything that causes star players to get injured more. Both are illogical and completely wrong, and Clay isn't a *****.

The fact of the matter is that teams in real life do lose star players, and sometimes, do lose their entire rotation. Look at the Nationals this year. 4 out of their 5 opening day rotation members are now on the disabled list. Look at the Yankees rotation this year. They used a record number of starting pitchers so early in the season. Look at the Yankees last season. They lost their two star corner outfielders for nearly the whole season.

It happens.

[OldFatGuy]

HoustonGM, so glad you pointed out the Nationals. Their number 1, 2 and 3 pitchers are on the DL, and still (as a Washington National fan, but don't get me started on the Orioles getting their TV revenue) I BELIEVED the frequency level was too high. At least until I checked MLB RL transactions. Then I couldn't believe how close to reality it was (at least in my example which is one season 1971, so it may not be enough data). But I will say, I went from a STRONG perception of believing injury frequency was WAY too high to now a strong perception of its just about right. I wish others would visit the site JayC showed me listing RL MLB transactions. It may change their mind as well.

[ohms_law]

Most people don't really want their minds changed on this issue.
*shrug*

[jcbarr]

Most people just see the injuries that happen to their team and yes, sometimes it does seem that they are too frequent, but if you look around the league many other teams have the same thing. I agree that it is frustrating when you see an injury to your star player and you are going to remember that. I would agree that most of it is perception, although I do still have my doubts about the severity of some injuries. I have had guys that can't ever play a full season because they have fractured their skull and then they break their hip and then their wrist and then boom they retire.

The number of injuries is pretty good, I just wish we could see less STRESS FRACTURES, especially for pitchers!

[HoustonGM]

Most people just see the injuries that happen to their team and yes, sometimes it does seem that they are too frequent, but if you look around the league many other teams have the same thing. I agree that it is frustrating when you see an injury to your star player and you are going to remember that. I would agree that most of it is perception, although I do still have my doubts about the severity of some injuries. I have had guys that can't ever play a full season because they have fractured their skull and then they break their hip and then their wrist and then boom they retire.

The number of injuries is pretty good, I just wish we could see less STRESS FRACTURES, especially for pitchers!
Well, yeah, the variety of types of injuries are certainly faulty, but the name of an injury is basically cosmetic.

[TacoBoy]

I always seem to get hit with alot of injuries right as the playoffs are about to begin. I suppose that is the wear and tear of the season adding up though.

[TexanBob]

I usually play a week or two weeks at a time. I find the most frequent time for injuries is near the end of July. The computer also takes more time in between results around July 29,30 and 31 then immediately speeds up if it gets into August.

What I see happening, though, is that it will stop itself somewhere in late July and announce a severe injury then start peppering you with trade offers if you have that option turned on. Sometimes, you have to run through a gauntlet of 2-3 injuries the last week of July so the game can pepper you with more trade requests.

Then, in August, the injury bug leaves you alone only to pop up again at the end of September - just in time for the playoffs.

I understand why the better players get injured more often - it's because you are playing them more. And there's no substitute for depth. You should be three deep in every position as well as 16 deep in pitchers. That way, the injuries don't cripple your season.

But just because you prepare yourself to handle injuries doesn't mean the injury problems are fair or realistic.

[ohms_law]

The computer also takes more time in between results around July 29,30 and 31 then immediately speeds up if it gets into August.
That's the trade deadline.


But just because you prepare yourself to handle injuries doesn't mean the injury problems are fair or realistic.

eh? It doesn't? I'm not sure that I really understand what your trying to say here...

[RAW]

I'm one, like many others, that get frustrated when one of my stars goes down with a severe injury that happens when I need him most..but, that's the way it is. I really like the injury factor in the game, it makes you plan for those things, just like RL GM's do, and work through them, just like RL managers do. I like it just the way it is, however, if it really bothers you, just cut it back in the editor, or turn it off altogether.

[shepster]

Besides Hospital Expence(medical) have noticed Injuries pop up high when switching players in Lineup/Bullpen.,Told that the program Doesn't like too much moving Players around in short time like 30 sim days.But an Injured player on roster then switch then hes injured then switch opps too many times Injured again.That one does make a hard Desision making.
This occures alot online.2k7/8 May not notice as much since i control the simming.

[Imgran]

The reason it seems high to simmers is that they can blow through a month's worth of games in a second while IRL games are obviously day by day.

[sjkforever]

My main peeve is that injuries are too high when you have LOW medical spending. Just try playing with a small market team and not paying much in medical staff. Your players drop like flies and every starting pitcher is randomly injured for 3-5 days.

[HoustonGM]

Than make sure to pay your medical staff?

[sjkforever]

you can't if you're a small market team. what I'm saying is that no matter how bad your medical staff is, it's still a major league baseball medical staff and your players should NOT get injured as often as you do with low spending. you don't see tampa bay players all getting injured.

[HoustonGM]

I see Washington's players all getting injured. I see Oakland's players all getting injured. I see THE YANKEES players all getting injured...

[Rongar]

you can't if you're a small market team. what I'm saying is that no matter how bad your medical staff is, it's still a major league baseball medical staff and your players should NOT get injured as often as you do with low spending. you don't see tampa bay players all getting injured.

The silver lining is that, because of injuries, one can strike gold:rolleyes:

I take injuries in stride, seeing them as opportunities to try out rookies and others, who seldom would get to play otherwise...found many a rising star that way...if BM serves you up a lemon....

[Wassit3]

I see Washington's players all getting injured. I see Oakland's players all getting injured. I see THE YANKEES players all getting injured...

didn't the yankees fire their trainer earlier in the season because of all the hamstring injuries?

[HoustonGM]

didn't the yankees fire their trainer earlier in the season because of all the hamstring injuries?
Yes.

[JayC]

didn't the yankees fire their trainer earlier in the season because of all the hamstring injuries?
Just for the sake of accuracy, it was their strength and conditioning coach, Marty Miller, who'd just been hired during the off-season... not head trainer Gene Monahan, who's been in that position for three decades or so.

[Imgran]

Not that that's really stopped the rash of injuries though. Damon, Mientkeiwicz and Giambi have been hurt since the guy was fired, and Phil Hughes was injured AGAIN and might miss the whole season.

[JayC]

Well the firing supposedly was mostly about the rash of hamstring injuries early in the season, which some people attributed to major changes in the conditioning program which de-emphasized running and stretching.

Whether that was really the problem or not, it'd take time to overcome poor conditioning after changing the approach -- and injuries like Mientkeiwicz' in a collision on the basepath are going to happen to no matter what.

[damonrusst]

Does putting a player in at DH instead of his regular position count as any sort of rest for him? I can't tell.

[ohms_law]

...not really. Based on Clay's statement here: Does DH get injured less? (http://forum.sportsmogul.com/showthread.php?t=108859&highlight=injured), my guess is that DH's have a lower rest requirement, but they still require rest.

[damonrusst]

Thanks, that was posted in 2006, is that injury checking method still true for this version? he mentions the game didn't account for DH rest enough, just wondering if that was ever changed.

Also, what I was really wondering was if I have a great CF who's getting tired and I put him in as DH for a couple of games, will he get rejuvenated? I've seen this happen in reg baseball but don't know if it happens in mogul.

[HoustonGM]

His post should still be applicable as nothing major has changed with the injury engine.

However, I don't think playing a position player at DH "rejuvenates" a player, so to speak, in either real life or Mogul. In real life, it just lessens the chance for injury, as it seems to also do in Mogul.

[damonrusst]

Oh, okay, I thought when he wrote this, "This will be improved in BB2K8, when I basically rewrite the way injuries occur." that some changes might have been made.

Maybe not. Clay? Can you clear this up for me?

[HoustonGM]

He's yet to implement those changes.

[damonrusst]

Oh, okay, fair enough.