NLCS Winner

[EVEN11323]

Los Angeles vs. Philadelphia, who wins?

[HoustonGM]

Phillies

[OregonDuck1989]

I'm gonna have to say....Phillies. Everyone wants to hand the Dodgers the title now but I see the Phillies beating them in seven.

[justanewguy]

The Lord predicteth Dodgers in 6.

[RedsoxRockies]

No, God predictith Dodgers in 5. What version of thy divine Bible are you reading? Those heretics of the tribe ESPN? They be blaphemous!

[skudplayr]

Everyone is picking the Dodgers. Gimme a break...Phillies in 6-7

[BINGLEBOP]

Dodgers.

[etothep]

The Lord predicteth Dodgers in 6.

the man speaks the truth

[RedsoxRockies]

the man speaks the truth

You read thy heretic 6- game series version of thy Holy Bible as well? You shal, be burned at teh stake for your blasphemy! Read thy 5-game series Bible

[filihok]

The poll is quite upside down. The Phillies bar is blue, the Dodgers' red...

Dodgers in 6

[justanewguy]

And Joe the bignosed did pray for 2 days and 2 nights, and on the third day an angel did appear before him, bearing a message from the Lord:

"The Big One who speaketh for Subway with Jared the Pitchman shalt presenteth thee a greater challenge than the ones named Cub. And Chase the Mighty shall swingeth upon the sphere with more fervor than Alfonso, Derrek and Aramis combined. For the Philliestines carry with them a drive and desire, and do not bear a curse as do the Cub Tribe. And the Philliestines do use their left hand as they do their right. The road ahead is filled with peril, and thou shalt use thy pitching staff from top to bottom to defeat thine approaching foe. Thou willst needeth ones who throw fire from the left hand. Yea, I come to warn thee, thou shalt not clincheth in the City of Angels! The Lord predicteth Dodgers in 6."

[TheNamelessPoet]

Everyone is picking the Dodgers. Gimme a break...Phillies in 6-7

:p there is a reason for that

[Swampdog]

Las Vegas oddsmakers have installed the Phillies as a small favorite (-120) to win the series, for what thats worth.

[YEAH DAAAAWG]

Its close, very close, but I'll say Dodgers in six or seven. I could see it going either way though.

[skudplayr]

:p there is a reason for that

I believe there was a "reason" for the Cubs being favored over the Dodgers too. We saw how that worked out.

[beerchaser]

Methinks the Dodgers win one of the first two to take away home field advantage, and win in 6 games.

[nuzzy62]

The poll is quite upside down. The Phillies bar is blue, the Dodgers' red...

It's a trick of Satan

[DarthJaker]

Joe Morgan "Who wins the NLCS Jon?"
Jon Miller "The DODGERS BABYYY!!!!!"
Joe "I agreee!!!!! Ye haw im a Redneck Hillbillies"
:D:D:D
:D
:D :D :D
:D
:D
:D
Last time i checked i dont listen to Redneck Hillbillies and im saying Phillies in 4-5

[metsguy234]

Dodgers in 5

[RedsoxRockies]

Dodgers in 5

So, metsguy, you read thy utmost holiest of Bibles? The 5-Game series version?

[YEAH DAAAAWG]

So, metsguy, you read thy utmost holiest of Bibles? The 5-Game series version?

No, hes bitter against the Phillies for beating out the Mets for the division and doesn't want to give the Phillies the credit they deserve. There's no way in hell the Phillies only win one game in this series.

[metsguy234]

No, hes bitter against the Phillies for beating out the Mets for the division and doesn't want to give the Phillies the credit they deserve. There's no way in hell the Phillies only win one game in this series.
Unfair assumption

[BravesFan4Life]

I've got the Phillies in 6. I could also see the Dodgers in 6.

For some reason, I have a hunch that the series won't go to 7 games no matter who's winning.

[haveacigar]

Dodgers in 6

[5dodgers5]

Catcher: Martin is the easy winner of this one. I don't even know who the Phils have at catcher.
1st Base: Howard is much better than Loney here. I can't argue that. Loney hits for better average, but Howard hits well with runners on and hits tons of homers.
2nd base: Utley is the easy winner here.
3rd base: A tough one, Blake vs. Feliz. Both players are good, but Blake is more consistent and hits for average. I'd still give it a push
Shortstop: Furcal and Rollins are both great shortstops, but Rollins is healthy, Furcal is still rusty, and Rollins is naturally better anyways. Close win for Rollins
Left Field: Manny kills Pat Burrell.
Center Field: Kemp vs. Victorino. That's a tough one. Kemp has more power, and I think he's better defensively. Push
Right Field: Ethier vs. Werth/Jenkins. Ethier is the clear winner

All the way through, I think the Dodgers have a better lineup. Really only one weakness, and that is Kent/DeWitt. Werth/Feliz can be weaknesses.

Starting Pitching: Both teams have great starters, but the Dodgers get the nod here. Lowe, Penny, Billingsley, and Kuroda are much better than Hamels, Myers, Moyer, Blanton/Kendrick.

Bullpen: Push. Lidge is dominant, but the rest is weak, while Saito/Broxton isn't nearly as dominant as Lidge but the bullpen as a whole is stronger.

Overall, top to bottom, the Dodgers have very few weaknesses, while the Phillies have some strengths and some very exploitable weaknesses (anyone in the bullpen not named Lidge for one).

Dodgers in 6

[phillies999]

Bullpen: Push. Lidge is dominant, but the rest is weak, while Saito/Broxton isn't nearly as dominant as Lidge but the bullpen as a whole is stronger.

The Phils 'pen has been great all season! They were like one of the top 'pens in the NL!

[metsguy234]

The Phils 'pen has been great all season! They were like one of the top 'pens in the NL!

Lidge and.... hmm.... uh..... Gordon? He still there? and.... Madson? That's all I've got...

[HoustonGM]

Lidge and.... hmm.... uh..... Gordon? He still there? and.... Madson? That's all I've got...
Gordon played in 30 or so games and didn't pitch well.

Take a look at the Phillies bullpen. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PHI/2008.shtml) Brad Lidge, J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson, Clay Condrey, Chad Durbin, and Rudy Seanez were ALL very good.

The Phillies were second in the majors in expected wins added over replacement pitcher (WXRL (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WXRL)) at 15.006, barely behind Tampa Bay at 15.234.

[metsguy234]

Gordon played in 30 or so games and didn't pitch well.

Take a look at the Phillies bullpen. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PHI/2008.shtml) Brad Lidge, J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson, Clay Condrey, Chad Durbin, and Rudy Seanez were ALL very good.

The Phillies were second in the majors in expected wins added over replacement pitcher (WXRL (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WXRL)) at 15.006, barely behind Tampa Bay at 15.234.

Looking at those bullpen stats now, you shouldn't be leaving Scott Eyre off your list...

[justanewguy]

Here's my more serious breakdown of the series:

Starting Pitching: Advantage Dodgers.

The Phillies have a solid staff, but the Dodgers have a very good staff. Hamels is an outstanding pitcher, but can have poor games. Assuming he's matched up against Lowe, those games should favor Hamels slightly. Hamels actually throws better against righties than lefties, which gives him an edge. After Hamels, the Dodgers have a huge advantage. The rest of the Phillies staff is decent but not great, where the Dodgers will be throwing Billingsley, Kuroda and possibly Kershaw.

Bullpen: Advantage Phillies.

The Phillies and Dodgers have the best bullpens in the majors. But Kuo may or may not be ready. And Saito is a question mark. Broxton, Wade, Park, Beimel and Maddux are almost as good as you can get, but Lidge, Romero, Durbin, Eyre and Madson are better. The quality of these two bullpens should make this an excellent series to watch.

Lineup: Even.

The Phillies have more weapons, where the Dodgers have one true weapon, but are more solid from 1 to 8. Rollins, Utley and Howard are monsters, and will give the Dodgers a tough time. But the Dodgers are capable of coming up with big hits from the 6 through 8 spots with Kemp, Blake and Dewitt. Kent, Nomar and Pierre also give the Dodgers a huge boost.

Bench: Advantage Dodgers.

Again, Kent, Nomar and Pierre. Great defense from Berroa. Easy edge for the Dodgers.

Defense: Advantage Phillies.

Utley and Rollins could be the best middle infield in baseball. Feliz is great. The Dodgers are average in the field.

Manager: Advantage Dodgers.

I like Charlie Manuel, but Torre has done this a thousand times. He also kept this team from falling apart, and prepared them to bring their A-game against the Cubs. I get the feeling he'll know what to do with a slightly injured bullpen, and how to approach the Phillies offense.

Intangibles: Even.

The Phillies have home field advantage, and Philadelphia is one of the toughest cities in all of sports to play in. The Phillies are hot, and cruised through the last few weeks of the season. This team can make it look easy when they're "on." The Dodgers are riding high on a sweep of the NL's best team, on the return of Furcal, and still loving the arrival of Manny. The Dodgers are also hot, and when the offense is clicking, this team is the best team in the NL.

I think the Dodgers' pitching and depth is what will put them over the top. I think they'll take one of the first 2 games in Philly (probably the Billingsley game), and follow it up by taking 2 of 3 at Dodger Stadium. Torre has implied he might go with a 3 man rotation, which would probably put Kuroda on the mound against a pitcher who isn't Hamels in Game 6 when the series returns to Philadelphia. This is why I'm picking the Dodgers in 6.

But it'll be a great series, and I think it could easily go either way, and could entirely depend on how well Utley and Howard hit.

[HoustonGM]

Looking at those bullpen stats now, you shouldn't be leaving Scott Eyre off your list...
He pitched 14 innings, but yeah, was good..in those 14 innings.

[Swampdog]

The Phillies are the better team, so I want the Dodgers to win. Easier opponent for the Sox (or Rays).

[justanewguy]

Quality of opponent doesn't matter. Anything can happen in a 13 game series. Luckiest team wins. May as well role dice for the championship. I've read more Bill James than you have. What I say is right.

[HoustonGM]

Eh, there's no need to be like that...*shrug*. I want the lesser team to win too (assuming the Rays beat Boston, if Boston wins, I don't have a preference), as I want the Rays to have a better chance at the winning the World Series, even though I know that it's entirely up in the air.

[RedsoxRockies]

Houston, you need to have Clay make a *shug* smilie, and you would be all set

[EVEN11323]

Good game, Phillies take it 3-2.

[EVEN11323]

I think Brett Myers deserves his Silver Slugger now.:p 6-2 Phillies in the 3rd.

[EVEN11323]

Phillies take Game 2, 8-5.

[beerchaser]

Well damn, that was embarassing. Kemp and Nomar couldn't have hit those sliders if they had a 2x4 in their hands.

[EVEN11323]

Top of the 9th, Phillies up 5-1.

[EVEN11323]

The Phillies win! Congrats to Philadelphia.

[Swampdog]

Clearly, the better team won, by any measure. The Dodgers, while having a nice run, are a very mediocre team. Even though they upset the Cubs, LA clearly is not anywhere near championship caliber. The Phillies figure to have more problems with the AL representative, which is looking more and more like the Rays.

[HoustonGM]

Clearly, the better team won, by any measure. The Dodgers, while having a nice run, are a very mediocre team. Even though they upset the Cubs, LA clearly is not anywhere near championship caliber.
You keep saying this, but, I just can't understand it. During the season, overall, they were very mediocre. However, this team in the playoffs is not anything like the team that played the majority of the season.

C: Russell Martin
1B: James Loney
2B: Blake DeWitt
SS: Rafael Furcal
3B: Casey Blake
LF: Manny Ramirez
CF: Matt Kemp
RF: Andre Ethier

Second base is the only true hole in the lineup. James Loney is good defensively, but leaves a lot to be desired for offensively. Blake is average at best. C, SS, LF, CF, and RF are all slightly to significantly above average. Overall, it's a solid offense.

Pitching-wise, Lowe, Billingsley, Kuroda, Kershaw is a VERY good rotation. Broxton, Wade, McDonald, Kuo, Maddux, Beimel, and Park make up a VERY good bullpen. A great pitching staff.

I'm not sure how you can construe this team to be "mediocre." They were mediocre in the regular season because they didn't have Manny, Furcal, and Blake for most of the year, and the difference between Manny, Furcal, Blake and Kent/Dewitt, Jones/Pierre, Angel Berroa is..well...FRIGGEN HUGE.



I do think that the Phillies were and are the better team, but I don't think you're given the Dodgers appropriate credit

[Swampdog]

I think you're wrong and, in this case, the records support my conclusion. Each to his own.

[HoustonGM]

I think you're wrong and, in this case, the records support my conclusion. Each to his own.
The full-season record supports your conclusion, but you seem to not be willing to listen to the fact that the playoff Dodger team is significantly different than the team that contributed to that mediocre record.

[Swampdog]

sigh.....Ok....when I get a few minutes I will elaborate further.

[HoustonGM]

Put it this way. During the regular season, the Dodgers got 238 pathetic plate appearances (32 OPS+) from Andruw Jones and another 375 poor plate appearances from Juan Pierre (70 ops+). They also got 226 plate appearances from Angel Berroa with a 60 OPS+.

That's A LOT of HORRIBLE offense that went into their mediocre full-season record. The difference between those near automatic outs and Manny Ramirez and Rafael Furcal is easily 5-7 wins, and that's an incredibly conservative estimate.

Ramirez and Furcal, alone, make this Dodger team COMPLETELY different from the team fielded most of the year.