Clay Dreslough
08-07-2002, 12:16 AM
According to Bill James, Runs Scored divided by Runs Allowed is pretty much all you need to determine how many games a team will win. In any given year, he says, a team's winning percentage will equal (Runs Scored Squared) / [(Runs Scored Squared) + (Runs Allowed Squared)].
Sounds simple. Score runs. Prevent runs. Win ball games.
According to this formula, the Red Sox should be the winningest team in the American League. Here are some AL teams with their predicted winning percentage by this formula (and their actual percentage in parentheses):
Red Sox .645 (.586)
Yankees .619 (.622)
Mariners .616 (.611)
Angels .603 (.595)
Twins .551 (.605)
Athletics .548 (.575)
So, most teams are "where they should be" while the Twins and A's are way ahaed. And the Sox are a whopping 7 games behind their projected mark!
This basically means the Red Sox are losing close games that they "should" win.
Is it the bullpen? Bad managing? The Curse?
Not sure, but doesn't it seem like the Sox under-perform in this way every year?
Clay
Sounds simple. Score runs. Prevent runs. Win ball games.
According to this formula, the Red Sox should be the winningest team in the American League. Here are some AL teams with their predicted winning percentage by this formula (and their actual percentage in parentheses):
Red Sox .645 (.586)
Yankees .619 (.622)
Mariners .616 (.611)
Angels .603 (.595)
Twins .551 (.605)
Athletics .548 (.575)
So, most teams are "where they should be" while the Twins and A's are way ahaed. And the Sox are a whopping 7 games behind their projected mark!
This basically means the Red Sox are losing close games that they "should" win.
Is it the bullpen? Bad managing? The Curse?
Not sure, but doesn't it seem like the Sox under-perform in this way every year?
Clay