Will Barry hit 755?

[Clay Dreslough]

Bill James has a formula he calls "The Favorite Toy" for determining the chance of a player hitting a career milestone:

This example is for Barry Bonds, and his pursuit of Hank Aaron's lifetime home run total. His current number of homers are representative to the end of the 2001 season.

The Favorite Toy takes four things into consideration in calculating the information:

1. The number of Home Runs that Barry Bonds needs to reach his goal. This is simply his goal number of Home Runs minus his current number of home runs.

2. How many years Barry Bonds has left to reach his goal. This is estimated by the formula, 24 minus .6 times the player's age. This assigns a 20 year old twelve remaining seasons, a 25 year old nine remaining seasons, a 30 year old six remaining seasons, and a 35 year old three remaining seasons. Any player who is still playing regularly is assumed to have a minimum of 1.5 seasons remaining. For Barry Bonds, age 37, his years remaining value is 1.8.

3. Barry Bonds' estimated home run level. This is estimated as 1/2 of what he did last year, 1/3 of what he did the year before, and 1/6 what he did the year before that. With 73 homers last year, 49 the year before, and 34 the year before that, Barry's estimated home run level is (36.50 + 18.34 + 5.66 = 60.5).

4. Barry Bonds' projected remaining home runs. This is found by multiplying how many years he has left to reach his goal by his estimated home run level. This is 1.8 x 60.5 = 108.9.

Once Bonds' projected remaining home runs are found, the chance of reaching his goal is his projected remaining home runs divided by the number of home runs he needs to reach his goal, minus .5. Barry started 2002 with 567 home runs, needing 188 to reach Hank Aaron. (108.9 / 188) - .5 = .079 = 7.9%

Note: No player's chance of reaching a goal can be more than .97 (97%).

BTW, if Barry finishes this year with 50 homers. His new projected number will be 57.5 per year, with 1.5 years remaining (the minimum for an active player), for a total of 86.25 more homers before he retires, but only 138 needed to tie Hammerin' Hank. The yields a 12% chance of reaching 755.

Clay

[ramsfan125]

I say Sammy Sosa has the best chance. A lot of liars from the Carribiean (if that's spelt right) and stereotype-hungry media folk fail to accept that Sammy Sosa is 33 years old. It shows a lot of negative things about American media. Everything is too good to be true. Everything has a conspiracy built around it. My favorite example is not about baseball, but rather about NASCAR. Last year, in the first NASCAR Winston Cup race at Daytona since Dale Earnhardt was tragically killed, his son, Dale Earnhardt Jr., won. Soon after, the rumors were it was a fixed race, including from fellow driver Jimmy Spencer (whom I hate more than Boston hates the Yankees). I don't like Jimmy Spencer or Dale Earnhardt Jr., but the fact was, it was unacceptable that the senimental favorite had won. I don't blame magic or a fix. I just say Junior was good that night.
Obviously, last year in NASCAR was of a much different breed from the obvious thing to mention, Danny Almonte age scandal in last year's Little League World Series. Lots of people thought he was too good to be 12, and it turned out he wasn't, rather he was 14. But it's a bad example of not willing to accept great things. I didn't think he looked particularly old, maybe a year older, but I can't persecute on looks. Suspicions arose by people saying he was too good. But they loved it. They snubbed it, because people haven't been able to accept things great, ever.
A-Rod certainly has a chance. He's younger than everybody else in the argument, and he hits homers real good. On this pace, he will be a definite competitor for the honor, but he's young, my excuse not my argument. Guys get hot early in their career, but then they cool down. Two words: Fernando Valenzuela. But then again, the 2nd place guy for homers at A-Rod's age was Jimmie Foxx, and he was OK, wasn't he?
Bonds has a decent shot, I think. I really like Barry Bonds. I know most don't, but I like watching a guy not swing at everything when going for history, yet he still hit 73 homers last year. He said he will play out his contract and retire, and I believe it. He won't stick around too long, unless of course he is the biggest force in the game. It's great seeing him get the recognition he never really got (wasn't a household name for people who don't give a darn about baseball). I think he's got like 3 years left, and if he can hit homers on the outstanding pace of 2001, he will unquestionably top Hank Aaron, but the question is whether or not he will.
I'm going to throw in somebody NOBODY will mention, but you never know, 21 year-old Albert Pujols. He's got an A-Rod situation, mixed with a Sosa situation. Young, and people say he's older. He had 37 homers last year, and if he does that 20 years, he will hit 740, not enough, but wait a second. He's bound to improve, unless he's a Fernando Valenzuela situation.
Those are four guys to watch along with my personal wild card. Who do you think will challenge Hammerin' Hank?

[Lock]

I heard that when Bonds' contract runs down, he's gonna retire. Something like he only wants to play out the rest of his Giants' career.

[ramsfan125]

Barry Bonds has way too much pride to play until he's 43 as an American League DH. I think he'd appreciate breaking the record, but he isn't gonna affect his reputation, like Aaron did.

[RickD]

REALLY OLD POLL GUYS......Don't know who voted but c'mon!

[gosensgo101]

Yes* should have been an option.

Gotta love the astericks

[Arctic Blast]

Pretty bold, voting in such a poll when the answer is already know. :rolleyes:

[CatKnight]

This poll is what....six years old!? Sheesh.

[ohms_law]

Yea well, it's closed now. I went back to the last 5 pages and closed a bunch of other polls as well, so hopefully it'll be a while before anyone else dredges up another really old poll thread.

[dps]

Ohm, can you close the thread as well as the poll?

[ohms_law]

I could but there's really no reason to. Quit posting to it, and it'll die a natural death.

[MeetDaMets]

Barry ? 755 ? he will never make it !

[skudplayr]

Barry Bonds has way too much pride to play until he's 43 as an American League DH. I think he'd appreciate breaking the record, but he isn't gonna affect his reputation, like Aaron did.

hahaha Barry Bonds and pride and reputation?

Oh how things change

[boomboom]

lol, i voted probably not.... haha

[priji]

He didnt complain when Bonds beat the record and hit 72 hrs. Everyone knew Bonds had to be on something but he turned his back and let it happen.

[ohms_law]

He didnt complain when Bonds beat the record and hit 72 hrs. Everyone knew Bonds had to be on something but he turned his back and let it happen.

I'll give you this much, for a spammer at least you're making an attempt at being nice about it... I like it, so I'm actually leaving all of the posts.
:)

[HoustonGM]

I'll give you this much, for a spammer at least you're making an attempt at being nice about it... I like it, so I'm actually leaving all of the posts.
:)
That's what went through my head, as well. :p

[boomboom]

delete this thread while you are at it.

[metsguy234]

I'll give you this much, for a spammer at least you're making an attempt at being nice about it... I like it, so I'm actually leaving all of the posts.
:)

How is he a spammer???

[HoustonGM]

How is he a spammer???
His signature is a pretty good giveaway.

[Coach Owens]

No. He won't! :D