What is the best 1-2 ace combo in baseball?

[Jeffy25]

Do your best

We are predicting which two will be the best in 2010.

While combining the past few years as well. What are the best 1-2

[200tang]

Does health count? I assume yes.

[Jeffy25]

Yes, which 1-2 will be the best in baseball for 2010, your predicitions

[etothep]

Gallardo-Wolf aren't listed? Your anti-Milwaukee bias shines through yet again

[Jeffy25]

haha,

I guess I could have made all 30 teams for this poll

[free2131]

I chose Lincecum and Cain.

My personal favorite was Maddux and Glavine.

[OregonDuck1989]

I chose Beckett-Lester. I think Lester is poised for a Cy Young year though.

[Jeffy25]

I homer voted :o

[dickay]

voted lincecum/cain.

webb/haren would be up there if not for webbs injury last year assuming he stayed consistent.

need another year similar to lasts from King Felix before I could vote for him in this.

Beckett has not been good enough to merit a vote. I love Lester but he has to be in Lincecum territory to carry Beckett in this poll...and even that may not be enough.

[kenny1234]

The second in New York is probably Vasquez (at least according to Chone projections), and they are very close. Too close to call among the top 5 (Giants, Phillies, Cardinals, Yankees and Red Sox) - but I'll say Giants as well.

[Alloutwar]

I went with the Mariners - king felix, and Cliff Lee in his walk year? That should be impressive.

Beckett could be great, but has been spotty over the years. Lackey/Lester I think will pull off a true 1-2 this year.

CC or Burnett will crash and burn. Not sure about Cain enough to vote for him. And Hamels didn't impress last year...Mariners seem like the best shot.

[dickay]

I went with the Mariners - king felix, and Cliff Lee in his walk year? That should be impressive.

Beckett could be great, but has been spotty over the years. Lackey/Lester I think will pull off a true 1-2 this year.

CC or Burnett will crash and burn. Not sure about Cain enough to vote for him. And Hamels didn't impress last year...Mariners seem like the best shot.

hard to argue your selection. I think Lee is likely the best or most consistent #2 of the group (I make Haren the #1 in AZ due to Webbs missed season last year). There is no doubt Felix is the real deal. Jeffy asked to conbine the last few years in the decision making, which is why I went Linc/Cain...but Felix/Lee is just as good.

[boomboom]

Lee and Hernandez are both #1's...

When Beddard gets healthy and is able to pitch on a regular basis and pitch effectively in June/July, that would be a nasty 1, 2 & 3

[HoustonGM]

Voted Lee-Hernandez.

As 200tang just said to me on AIM, though, the difference between the top 4 or 5 pairs is barely anything.

[actionjackson]

Lincecum-Cain. Youth and awesomeness is on their side. Interesting tidbit for the non-Giants fans ('cause Giants fans/more knowledgeable baseball fans will know): Matt Cain is younger than Lincecum. Whoa! These are two definite Cy Young candidates heading into the season.

[Red Sox Fan 734]

I voted for Beckett Lester, but realistically its Hernandez and Lee

[gRYFYN1]

I went with Hernandez/Lee. But i think it a true toss up between them and Cain/Lincecum.

[HoustonGM]

I think people are overrating Cain based on his 2009 ERA. Lincecum/Cain is certainly in the discussion, if only because Lincecum is so awesome, but Cain last year was fundamentally little different than the Cain of 2006-2008 - which is a very good pitcher but not a Cy Young contender. Cain's been remarkably consistent ever since entering the majors.

His tERA/FIP:

2005: 4.15/4.08
2006: 3.69/3.96
2007: 3.45/3.78
2008: 4.41/3.91
2009: 4.03/3.89

The difference between 2009 and 2007/2008? A BABIP of .268 (.284 and .304 in 2007/08) and a LOB% of 81.6% (72.9/75.3 07/08). Cain certainly has the talent to take a step up and enter the realm of "aces", but look past the likely unsustainable BABIP drop and LOB% spike, and he hasn't done that yet. Fundamentally, he's a 115-120ish ERA+ guy.

[dickay]

I think people are overrating Cain based on his 2009 ERA. Lincecum/Cain is certainly in the discussion, if only because Lincecum is so awesome, but Cain last year was fundamentally little different than the Cain of 2006-2008 - which is a very good pitcher but not a Cy Young contender. Cain's been remarkably consistent ever since entering the majors.

His tERA/FIP:

2005: 4.15/4.08
2006: 3.69/3.96
2007: 3.45/3.78
2008: 4.41/3.91
2009: 4.03/3.89

The difference between 2009 and 2007/2008? A BABIP of .268 (.284 and .304 in 2007/08) and a LOB% of 81.6% (72.9/75.3 07/08). Cain certainly has the talent to take a step up and enter the realm of "aces", but look past the likely unsustainable BABIP drop and LOB% spike, and he hasn't done that yet. Fundamentally, he's a 115-120ish ERA+ guy.

same could be said about king felix. he did have a monster 09, better than cain who also have a terrific year himself....but prior to that he was 115-120 era+ guy at best. both are very young.

[etothep]

someone get the popcorn ready

[HoustonGM]

same could be said about king felix. he did have a monster 09, better than cain who also have a terrific year himself....but prior to that he was 115-120 era+ guy at best. both are very young.
Felix was the much better prospect with a much better scouting profile. Furthermore, unlike Cain, his 2009 was a breakout season in more than just earned run average.

[TheNamelessPoet]

someone get the popcorn ready

+1 rofl

[Jeffy25]

haha, where is that lil smilie that is sitting there eating the popcorn?

I have it on my other computer.

[dickay]

Felix was the much better prospect with a much better scouting profile. Furthermore, unlike Cain, his 2009 was a breakout season in more than just earned run average.

the question didn't ask who was the better prospect (and Cain was a pretty damn good one too) it asked the best combo taking into account the past few seasons. Felix's 09 was better, but that was never disputed. You said what Cain was prior to 09, and I merely said the same could be said of Felix. Arguably, prior to 09...Cain was better.

If I had a choice no doubt Felix is better. I don't know why you are looking to argue that point. I'm just stating that prior to last year, Cain was very similar if not better than Felix as a whole.

So over the last few years...Lincecum > Lee....and Cain > or at least = King Felix. Felix 09 was special, superb. Cains was pretty damn good too. Even if one says Felix has been better than Cain over the past 3-4 years the difference doesn't offset Lincecum's advantage over Lee.

[YEAH DAAAAWG]

I voted Lee-Hernandez, but them and Lincecum-Cain is basically 1 and 1a.

[HoustonGM]

the question didn't ask who was the better prospect (and Cain was a pretty damn good one too) it asked the best combo taking into account the past few seasons.
I'm aware. The fact that Felix was a better prospect lends more credence to his breakout season being "real", as well as for him being better going forward.


Felix's 09 was better, but that was never disputed. You said what Cain was prior to 09, and I merely said the same could be said of Felix. Arguably, prior to 09...Cain was better.
I know. My post was pointing out how , fundamentally, Cain's 2009 wasn't much different from each of his previous seasons, so, going forward, we should expect an ERA somewhere in the mid-3's. Felix, with similar pre-2009 seasons to Cain, isn't in the same boat as Cain because Felix's 2009 WAS fundamentally better than his previous seasons.


If I had a choice no doubt Felix is better. I don't know why you are looking to argue that point. I'm just stating that prior to last year, Cain was very similar if not better than Felix as a whole.
Okay. Let's spell this out.

1) I said people are overrating Cain because of his 2009 ERA, pointing out that, fundamentally, he wasn't a very different pitcher than he was previously. Therefore, going forward, he's likely to be the guy we saw previously - a very good pitcher, ERA+ around 115-120.

2) You said the same can be said of Felix.

3) I said no, because of Felix's superior pedigree and his breakout season being more "real" (ie. not just ERA).

If your post was solely intended to point out that pre-2009 Felix was similar or worse than pre-2009 Cain, um, okay, I have no idea why pointing that out would be necessary. However, since you highlighted my sentence about overrating Cain, I assumed the "same can be said" part meant that people are overrating Felix because of 2009 and that we should expect Felix to be more like he was pre-2009.

[HoustonGM]

So over the last few years...Lincecum > Lee....and Cain > or at least = King Felix. Felix 09 was special, superb. Cains was pretty damn good too. Even if one says Felix has been better than Cain over the past 3-4 years the difference doesn't offset Lincecum's advantage over Lee.
I'll play your game - the question didn't ask which combo has been the best over the past 3-4 years.

You're right, over the past 3-4 years, Lincecum/Cain have been better than Felix/Lee. Going forward, though, I see two Cy Young-caliber pitchers in Seattle, and a Cy Young-caliber pitcher and a very good pitcher in San Francisco.

[filihok]

I'll play your game - the question didn't ask which combo has been the best over the past 3-4 years.


Do your best

We are predicting which two will be the best in 2010.

While combining the past few years as well. What are the best 1-2

It was a Jeffy question, so I don't think anyone can be entirely sure what it meant

[filihok]

Okay. Let's spell this out.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDy_BYouPxo

[dickay]

It was a Jeffy question, so I don't think anyone can be entirely sure what it meant

lmao...i was just thinking the same after looking at it again and seeing it asked two entirely different questions that somehow mesh.

1) who will be the best in 2010

2) while combining the last few years, who are the best 1-2?

'assuming' Felix pitches closer to his 09 form than prior, which should be expected...the answer to #1 is likely Seattle though its very close. The answer to #2 is also debatable but i'd gather than if looking only at #2 the majority would lean SF.

[ragecage]

It was a Jeffy question, so I don't think anyone can be entirely sure what it meant

I think you deserve a pat on the back for derailing what could of been a 7 page long dice/hgm debate.

[filihok]

I think you deserve a pat on the back for derailing what could of been a 7 page long dice/hgm debate.

Sorry...you can all take your popcorn over to the couch and watch a movie

[OregonDuck1989]

Sorry...you can all take your popcorn over to the couch and watch a movie

Punto damn you FILI!!!

[ragecage]

Sorry...you can all take your popcorn over to the couch and watch a movie

I actually HATE popcorn. :eek:

[JamesMogul]

I'm a sucker for consistency. Webb and Haren

[HoustonGM]

I'm a sucker for consistency. Webb and Haren
They'd be my pick if there wasn't uncertainty over Webb's health.

[5dodgers5]

No one even makes an argument for Halladay-Hamels? I thought they were definitely the top 1-2 punch

[HoustonGM]

No one even makes an argument for Halladay-Hamels? I thought they were definitely the top 1-2 punch
You're right. Overlooked that duo.

For the same reason people are overrating Cain, people are underrating Hamels (one had a lucky 2009, the other an unlucky one). I'd take Hamels over Cain easily, and Halladay and Lincecum are probably the two leading preseason Cy Young candidates, so they're a push...which means, yeah, I'd take them over Lincecum/Cain, though I still prefer Felix/Lee to them.

[Rexington]

I too went for Webb/Haren because of the consistency. I think Webb is the type of pitcher who can bounce back very well after an injury. I don't think he will Liriano on the baseball world.
Personally I think that Lee/Hernandez could easily overtake them though. I then place Cain/Lincecum #3 because of Cain's consistency. I think it is a push with Halladay/Lincecum and I take Cain over Hamels. I think Cain is the better pitcher and Hamels is the better thrower. I think Hamels has more potential than Cain, but I think Cain has a better chance at pitching near his ceiling...so far. If Hamels pitches close to his 2008 season then I think they could be the best in 2010.

[haveacigar]

I'm going to make a case for Verlander/Scherzer. They both play in front of very solid defenses, and they probably have the raw stuff to match up with anyone on that list.

If I'm being fair, Hernandez/Lee is more likely to be better in 2010, but I'm voting for Verlander/Scherzer. If Verlander gets some better luck, and Scherzer takes a step forward in development, the chance is there that they could be the best.

[200tang]

I didn't vote because the difference between the top guys is nothing. However, if I did I would have voted for someone with a good defense SF/SEA/BOS/STL just because they have a higher chance of avoiding being unlucky.

The only thing I care about is Felix fixing a lot of the problems he had last year to be even better.

[YEAH DAAAAWG]

I didn't vote because the difference between the top guys is nothing. However, if I did I would have voted for someone with a good defense SF/SEA/BOS/STL just because they have a higher chance of avoiding being unlucky.

The only thing I care about is Felix fixing a lot of the problems he had last year to be even better.

Who are the guys you think don't belong on this poll? If that's what you're inferring. I tend to lean toward Burnett - Sabathia and Kershaw - Billingsley. I think Kershaw and Billingsley will be down the road, maybe even as soon as this year, but not just yet. And I really don't think Burnett is an ace pitcher at all, I don't even think he's a solid #2. I think he's a decent #2, but I think he's more of a really good #3, if that makes any sense. Sabathia, sure, if he holds up (which I think is a big question mark moving forward given the workload he's had in his career and the fact that he's never been in great shape), but not Burnett.

[200tang]

Who are the guys you think don't belong on this poll? If that's what you're inferring. I tend to lean toward Burnett - Sabathia and Kershaw - Billingsley. I think Kershaw and Billingsley will be down the road, maybe even as soon as this year, but not just yet. And I really don't think Burnett is an ace pitcher at all, I don't even think he's a solid #2. I think he's a decent #2, but I think he's more of a really good #3, if that makes any sense. Sabathia, sure, if he holds up (which I think is a big question mark moving forward given the workload he's had in his career and the fact that he's never been in great shape), but not Burnett.

I wasn't really trying to get at that, but I'd say Kershaw/Billingsley don't belong at the top and neither does CC/Burnett. I guess an easy way to look through the list is to just look at all the pitchers who are strong Cy Young Candidates. I don't think I would call Burnett/Kershaw/Billingsley strong Cy Young Candidates.

[free2131]

Derek Lowe & Kenshin Kawakami = bestest in the MLB!!

Actually, Hanson and Jurrjens aren't too bad. Should have a better idea after this year.

[mtg712]

verlander and poorchello (thats how i intentionally pronounce it) will be a great 1-2 combo after porcello develops.

[kenny1234]

Who are the guys you think don't belong on this poll? If that's what you're inferring. I tend to lean toward Burnett - Sabathia and Kershaw - Billingsley. I think Kershaw and Billingsley will be down the road, maybe even as soon as this year, but not just yet. And I really don't think Burnett is an ace pitcher at all, I don't even think he's a solid #2. I think he's a decent #2, but I think he's more of a really good #3, if that makes any sense. Sabathia, sure, if he holds up (which I think is a big question mark moving forward given the workload he's had in his career and the fact that he's never been in great shape), but not Burnett.


I wasn't really trying to get at that, but I'd say Kershaw/Billingsley don't belong at the top and neither does CC/Burnett. I guess an easy way to look through the list is to just look at all the pitchers who are strong Cy Young Candidates. I don't think I would call Burnett/Kershaw/Billingsley strong Cy Young Candidates.
Every projection that I've seen has the top two in the Yankees rotation as Sabathia and Vazquez - not Burnett. According to the CHONE projections, Lincecum and Cain are expected to combine for 97 runs better than replacement, while Sabathia and Vazquez combine for 103 runs better than replacement. In order, the contenders are:

Sabathia and Vazquez - 103 runs
Lincecum and Cain - 97 runs
Halladay and Hamels - 97 runs
Hernandez and Lee - 94 runs
Greinke and Meche - 89 runs
Beckett and Lackey - 84 runs
Verlander and Scherzer - 75 runs
Haren and Jackson - 75 runs (Haren/Webb is 74 runs)
Kershaw and Billingsley - 69 runs
Carpenter and Wainwright - 65 runs

[dickay]

vazquez is soooo underrated. He's not quite as good as he was last year....but he's a consistent horse who I would absolutely love to have had on the Sox. He was the Yankees biggest acquisition this year...not Granderson.

[kenny1234]

I think that CHONE is overrating Vazquez, but that people here are either forgetting him, or underrating him.

[HoustonGM]

Vazquez's problem has always been that his ERA has never matched up to his peripherals, probably due to his career split of .245/.291/.406 with no runners on and .273/.331/.441 with runners on. The peripherals finally did match his ERA in 2009 (and his men-on vs. bases empty stats were similar - 20 point OPS difference rather than the 70 point difference he shows for his career).

The questions surrounding him are twofold - 1) Has he finally figured out whatever it was that kept his ERA from matching his peripherals, or was he just lucky in 2009? and 2) How will moving from a slight pitcher's park in the National League to a hitter's park in the American League East affect him? He does have a career ERA half a run better in the NL than the AL.

[dickay]

career split of .245/.291/.406 with no runners on and .273/.331/.441 with runners on.

would that have something to do with a lack of clutchness :confused:;)

[HoustonGM]

would that have something to do with a lack of clutchness :confused:;)
Probably not. It probably has to do with his stuff not being as good out of the stretch. If better stuff out of the wind-up than the stretch is what we call "not clutch", then, sure.

[kenny1234]

Vazquez has the large split you indicate, which might be a reason that his career ERA is about 0.35 runs higher than his FIP. Felix Hernandez is another one with a huge split (OPS of 0.649 vs 0.736) favoring bases empty situations, but his ERA is actually slightly lower than his FIP.

My guess is that most of the difference between Vazquez and his peripherals has been a lack of luck.

[HoustonGM]

My guess is that most of the difference between Vazquez and his peripherals has been a lack of luck.
If he didn't do it on a consistent basis, I'd agree. Similar to Tom Glavine and Mark Buerhle, two guys who consistently best their FIP, I think there's something more than luck with Vazquez.

[haveacigar]

Might also be poor pitch selection out of the stretch.

[200tang]

Probably not. It probably has to do with his stuff not being as good out of the stretch. If better stuff out of the wind-up than the stretch is what we call "not clutch", then, sure.

beat me to it.

[mattynokes]

Vazquez won't even sniff last year's numbers. You don't need projections to see that he's an NL pitcher gets rocked in the AL. The Yanks can have fun with a 4.50 ERA, 9.0+ H/9, and 1.25 HR/9 pitcher.

[dickay]

Vazquez won't even sniff last year's numbers. You don't need projections to see that he's an NL pitcher gets rocked in the AL. The Yanks can have fun with a 4.50 ERA, 9.0+ H/9, and 1.25 HR/9 pitcher.

and his 200+ innings with 8-9 K/9 - 2BB/9. Not bad at all for a #4. I'm a Yankee hater who can see the brilliance in the signing.

[HoustonGM]

Projections (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=801&position=P) put him around a 3.70 ERA.

[Jeffy25]

and his 200+ innings with 8-9 K/9 - 2BB/9. Not bad at all for a #4. I'm a Yankee hater who can see the brilliance in the trade.
;)

[ragecage]

Ben Sheets and Justin Duchshereerereererererererer

[200tang]

Ben Sheets and Justin Duchshereerereererererererer

Isn't Dutchee the #4?

[ragecage]

Isn't Dutchee the #4?

He should be in the bullpen. Knowing the Genius of Geren, he will be #2.

[HoustonGM]

The "#" a pitcher actually is in the rotation is pretty irrelevant.

[OregonDuck1989]

The "#" a pitcher actually is in the rotation is pretty irrelevant.

But in a 1-2 ace combo you'd think the 1-2 part would be part of the requirements.

Not 1-4

[200tang]

Dutchee is the fourth best pitcher on the staff....soooo..

[HoustonGM]

But in a 1-2 ace combo you'd think the 1-2 part would be part of the requirements.

Not 1-4
Generally, when I hear "1-2 ace combo", I think it means "the best two pitchers on the same team"....what order they actually pitch in, for one, really only stays the same for the first few games of the season, and for two, has too many factors that affect it so that the first two guys aren't always the best two.

[HoustonGM]

Dutchee is the fourth best pitcher on the staff....soooo..
Anderson, Sheets and who?

[200tang]

Anderson, Sheets and who?

Cahill.

[HoustonGM]

Cahill.
I think Cahill has the potential to be better, and will eventually be better, but I don't know if he definitely is right now.

[200tang]

I think this year he will be.

[HoustonGM]

Maybe.