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baudib1
12-08-2011, 12:36 AM
Hi, thought I'd share some of my findings after running a few franchises for several seasons and conducting many drafts.

1. Make sure you pay the extra to get top-notch scouting. Even with A+ scouting, you won't have perfect information, but you will avoid the disastrous overdrafts that CPU franchises will make.

2. There seems to be a bug in the programming that causes CPU-controlled teams to totally go nuts on one position. If a team decides it needs tackles, it will often spend 7-14 straight picks over two years on tackles. If you look at the rosters on CPU teams after a few years, all of them will have about 12-20 draft picks at one position, even after it has found good players there. So trying to predict what the CPU team in front of you will do is nearly impossible if you were judging it rationally; if you see them take a center in the first round and a center in the second round, you can be pretty sure it will try to take a center in the third round, too.

3. Good players at certain positions are almost impossible to get without extremely high draft picks. It is possible to accumulate a good number of draft picks; getting them in the top half of the draft is somewhat tricky. Trade away excess young players for draft picks down the road and hope that the team tanks (may not happen if the guys you give them turn out to be stars!).

QB: Just like in real life, franchise quarters are expensive and go really high in the draft. Unfortunately, many if not most draft classes do not contain franchise quarterbacks. That doesn't stop teams from taking mediocre prospects high. Very occasionally, you can find a guy in the second round who may take years to develop but will turn out to be decent.

DT: Another position where it is necessary to expend high picks in the draft to acquire is defensive tackle. Regardless of the CSS, DTs with a good peak rating go like hotcakes. I looked at a recent league that had run for about 11 seasons, and of the top 20 rated DTs in the league, 14 were first-rounders, 8 of them going in the top half of the first round (including real-life holdover Gerald McCoy). Only 1 of the top 20 was drafted after the second round. This doesn't necessarily reflect real life, where many top DTs are undrafted, but it does reflect the scarcity of talent at the position.

I'm not sure that splurging on DTs is cost-effective, however. Some will fail to develop, many will peak early and seem to fade quickly -- it's a rough position. It may be more efficient to evolve into a 3-4 team, as linebacker talent seems much more readily available.

RB: Running back is another position teams draft very early, and true franchise running backs are very rare. Instead of wasting a high pick on a middling 77-85 type RB prospect, I'd recommend trading for one. If you manage your budget well and need an impact player at RB, you can acquire a veteran in trade -- he will be overpriced but will give you the year or two you need.

T: Good tackles are vital to success, and if you get lucky and get a real stud, they will usually make an immediate impact and be solid for many, many years.

G, C: There's less talent at C and especially guard than at tackle. I usually just take the small hit and draft a tackle even if I have 2 good ones and convert them into guards instead of trying to trade for one. If a rare stud guard or center with something like a 85-90+ rating comes along, don't be afraid to grab them, they'll be worth it.

Pass rushers: Players will very high pass-rush ratings are very rare. They are unique and drafting them and utilizing them by position can be tricky:

As mentioned, great DTs are difficult to acquire. Very rarely are young DTs given a Pass Rush grade over 82-83. On the other hand, high-pass rush ratings at DE are fairly common. You can find high-rated DE prospects after the first or second round, however, they don't seem to last very long. It is very frustrating to see a high pick come in with a good rating, develop for a year or two and then suddenly plummet. DEs who can rush the passer AND play the run are very rare; those you'll have to take pretty early.

Linebackers who can rush the passer are rare. If it's your turn to pick and there's a LB with a 90+ pass rush rating out there, just take him. LB blitzes are very effective, and even one-dimensional LBs can be monsters -- it is not uncommon for a LB to pile up ridiculous sack totals like 25-30 or even 35-40 a year. Other than DEs, players with pass-rush ratings over 80 usually go pretty high.

Safeties with 85+ pass rush ratings are very very rare. If you have great corners, you can run a lot of safety blitzes. You'll probably have to design some of your own defensive plays to accommodate a great rushing safety or linebacker.

WR: Receivers rarely go high in the draft. There's very often not a lot to choose from. The CPU teams tend to go for WRs with good 40 times; you'll find guys with high ratings but 4.65 times still available in the 6th-7th rounds sometimes. They seem to develop well, can block and have no trouble making big plays, so I wouldn't worry too much about their pure speed. If you get toward the end of the draft and there are still a ton of good receivers available, just take them and use them for trade bait -- teams will trade you their No. 1 pick RB for a WR you drafted in the 6th round.

TEs: You almost never see a TE drafted early. Many TEs can develop into serviceable starters, very few are real impact players; almost none stay at a peak level for an extended period. Go for them in the fourth-fifth rounds or later.

...continued

baudib1
12-08-2011, 12:45 AM
S: A lot of teams like to draft safeties early -- the really good ones will usually be hard to get after the first round. I once used a No. 8 overall pick on a S and he was a total stud, developing quickly into a 90 rush D, 90 coverage player with 85 turnover and he gave me 12 great years. Those type of players don't come along very often. However, my biggest draft bust was also a safety -- I took a guy who had a high CSS and an 85/90 rating high in the first. As soon as the draft was over, his overall rating dropped to 74 -- I had projected him as a first-year starter and then had to acquire someone else. He never really developed at all.

CB: Superstar corners who can make an immediate impact are rare. Good CB prospects can be found in the second, third and fourth rounds, and sometimes later. Look for guys with good coverage and turnover ratings. In a recent league, many of the top cornerbacks were 5th-round picks.

LB: While pass rushers go early, good balanced linebackers will always be available in the second-third rounds. Finding a huge run stopper who can anchor the interior defense is very difficult, however.

FB: I never draft a fullback, I convert middling RBs who can block into dangerous FB weapons.

P, K: I've drafted a punter or K in the 6th round occasionally if I have no other needs and there are no exciting prospects left. Usually I just trade a mediocre prospect for someone's rookie kicker.

Rexington
12-31-2011, 04:19 AM
All excellent suggestions. I also have a nice tip to add.

Keep an eye out for WR who have a high rushing value. I have scored a few franchise running backs that I converted from WR.
Some may cry foul at this, but I will draft a WR high, convert him and trade him for a terrific player.
I have also noticed that this does NOT work for a RB with 90+ receiving/hands.

I don't trust CSS ratings worth a crap either. I have tried and tried to trust a 69/72 defensive player with an 8+ CSS score and they have never developed. I haven't even bothered with offensive players. I also overload on high rating LB's. Excellent trade bait in a couple years or replacement for a 30+ yr old high salary starter.

Kevin71
12-31-2011, 02:43 PM
In my experience, late round RB's can develop into monsters. They outplay their ratings, but I don't care; a 72 overall HB rushing for 1,500 yards at 5 YPC is better than an 88 running for 900 yards on 3.3 YPC.

verity_blues
05-06-2012, 09:51 PM
Great post!