pitcher development question...

[soobooboo]

this is for any veteran of the game willing to share their experience with a relative greenhorn.

is it detrimental to the pitchers performance over the long term if you call him up and throw him into the fire before he might be 100% ready?

i have a much beleaguered pitching staff that is giving up way too many runs. but in AAA i have 4-5 young pitchers who are performing fairly well, though not at an all star level (I dont have any pedro martinez's or roger clemens' coming through the system at the moment).

Major league starting 5: 18-33, 5.41 era, 1.58 whip (and getting worse)
Top 5 AAA pitchers: 29-9, 4.34 era, 1.30 whip

most of the damage currently being done can be blamed on two starters. the other three are more or less servicable.

in my position, would you call them up or take your lumps for the rest of the year (im just past the 1/2 way point) and reassess next spring?

thanks in advance

[DaveHorn]

Bored at work wandering the boards and look who I found.

I've only got about 30 seasons experience total, but I'll share my thoughts. First, it seems like many young pitchers have to take their lumps in the bigs before they become a quality starter. So if I'm in the middle of a terrible season and my starters aren't doing anything, I'll go ahead and call up some AAA guys. I would rather have them take their lumps when my team stinks anyway. More likely then not, they are going to pitch pretty bad. Regardless, I like to let them stay until they get 30-40 innings in. Then depending upon how they do, I may call the vet back up.

I have seen no evidence that this helps nor hinders the players development. Thus far, my gut feeling is that it helps to let them pitch in the bigs on and off while they are developing. In our league, look at my staff ace Broderick. He always had great scouting, but he logged quite a few innings before he became a very good pitcher. I've seen this many times, these high 3/low 4 ERA guys in AAA get knocked around quite a bit when they are called up, but once they get some innings they do seem to be able to become at least worthy of starting. Of course, farm spending probably plays a major roll in individual results.

Having said that, I've been experimenting with just calling up a guy and leaving him to the sharks all year and see what he does. But my team unexpectantly became good this year, so I don't have the guts to start my experimental kid. I do have him as my spot starter. Check out Bootin on my squad. I just let him sit in the 5 spot all year last year, he rolled a nice 3-24 8.08 .336 OBA record. He has limited innings so far as my spot starter, but his 3.20 .192 OBA sure look promising. Although, his WHIP is not good, so the jury is defintely still out on him.

I looked at your team. I would definitely give some of the AAA guys a shot. The way I see it, the only thing you got to lose is more games, and it doesn't look like a few more losses are going to change your season much.

Anyway, feel free to to throw stuff up in our league board. I roam in there daily. And we need to liven things up a bit in the board sometimes.

[soobooboo]

thanks D.

i figured posting the question here would get it seen more, and get me more varied responses than if i posted it in the league. plus, the impression ive gotten in our league is that a handful of the owners might be less than objective in responding (which i can hardly blame them for).

but no matter.

Im going to take a look at at least one of them, as he's a free agent after the end of next season. might as well know what im letting slip away if and when i cant resign him. and really, i find it hard to imagine any of these guys could do much worse than hernandez and mason (over the past season and a half they are a combined 12-49 with a 5.14 era and 1.52 whip).

and the all star break seems as good a time to shift some gears as any.

[DaveHorn]

Actually, we got some good guys in that league. I haven't asked too many questions on the boards, but when I first started, I got all sorts of advice from the commish (Boston) and Josh (Mets) among others. For that matter, I would even be starting my #3 and #4 hitters right now had I not talked to Josh and he pointed out all sorts of successful call ups with zero AAA experience.

[stealthdog666]

I agree with DaveHorn. If your season is going nowhere and it is more than halfway past, why not try out a few of your rookies? If you already have guys who are getting lit up, it can't hurt to experiment with a few of your guys. That is what they do in real baseball.

[kaill]

I always tend to assume that the first season for a hitter or pitcher is a lost cause, so I only bring up my future stars if 1) my season is going down the tubes anyway or 2) I have a strong enough team that I can afford to punt a position or two. Good rookies seasons are bonuses that I never take for granted.

I find that pitchers tend to reach "plateaus" in this game - ie, have a 5.00 ERA for 2 seasons, then a 4.00 ERA for 2, then a 2.80 ERA for 4 or 5, then back up to 4.00 or so. I haven't really noticed a difference between bringing up pitchers when they're 20 or 26 - they all seem to go through this adjustment period.

So, I tend to let the situation decide - how strong my rotation is, how likely they are to develop well in the minors (from good Farm spending), how bored I am.

[dismaldream]

well, i just want to add what ive been practicing.

for me, as a rule, i really try not to bring a rookie up to the big leagues unless i feel he is ready.

for hitters, an indicator for me is if his obp is above .400. this is my sign that this player is almost ready to go. i look at AAA batting avg. like if his contact rating is in the A range, then i wait for an average of above .320; B range: above .300, c range, above .280. simply bc a rookie should pretty much dominate AAA in order to be considered major league ready.

pitchers, i defintely look at opponent batting average allowed and i get an idea of the pitcher's whip. for me, era isnt as important as these 2 stats. i weigh era less bc it doesnt seem to be as strong an indicator of major league success in the game as it would in real life. pitchers, though, are the most difficult to predict. there are also special circumstances when i will bring a pitcher up, esp if he seems to be a big winner in AAA (15 wins or above). and of course, scouting reports help.

for defense, as long as i see huge improvement, i know a player is on the right track. once the range improvement is just under +10%, i consider that player ready to field major league grounders because the improvement trend is leveling off.

player expectation is something i also take into consideration. for an average prospect who is a bit of an older rookie, i feel i have a need to as patient. since he only projects as an average player, ill bring him up when his standards are up to par.

for excellent prospects of the game changing kind, i wait for them to perform above my expectation. bc i feel true impact players will have astounding years in AAA. when i figure that a 21 yr old slugger should hit 35 HR in AAA, i would generally wait until he eclipses that or at least is on a pace to surpass that number.

and there is also something to be said of overpatience. i think im guilty of this every so often. this occurs when you leave a prospect in AAA for too long and when you finally bring him up, his ratings have dropped and he isnt as strong an asset as he once was. i guess i subscribe to that belief that a player begins to mature with his mechanics or his batting stance and swing at around the age of 23. and there arent many major leaguers in real life who break into the bigs and have an impact before this age. yes there are those superfreaks like a josh beckett (who just never seems to do well in BBMO) or pjols or a mark prior or an adrian beltre, but those are rare. they come once every 2-3 years for the entire major leagues. so, with that in mind, i do like to leave my prospects in AAA until that age, or when they no longer show improvement.

another case is when a player does show dramatic improvement. i pay extra special attention to this. and here, i do take a risk. positive results are about 50/50 of working out to being a flash in the pan.

i do practice what davehorn and stealthdog and kaill among many others do. i have those september callups (even though our rosters dont expand like in real baseball).

and when i cant decide, i just IM a fellow moguler to hear what he thinks about a certain player. their input always helps aid my decision, and i think most of us would be glad to give some advice, provided that we arent in the same division.

michael
EMAIL: dismaldream@yahoo.com
AIM: michaediscontent

[georgefc3]

I would really hesitate before bringing up a minor leaguer. The main reason is that it will affect his salary demands. If he is in his contract year and pitches wonderfully, you will have to pay extra to retain him.

I wait until I think a guy is ready and then sign him to a seven year contract. This is generally around age 27-29. Only then does he see major league ball.

If you are short on pitching look carefully at the free agent pool. Often there is a diamond in the rough. I recently picked up Scott Elarton in Equalized Mogullers. He is helping me quite a lot. Next year I will bring up two or so rookies to replace the aging Schilling and Hernandez.

By the way, in this league I've won two world series out of four years. My advice is good.