E.R.A. Nightmare

[mystic]

I know this has been talked about in some of the smaller league forums, but this is getting ridiculous.

I have seen the best ERA's in a league that are over 5.00. What is worse is that I have seen some teams finish a season with an ERA over 9.00. One team had Curt Schilling, Omar Daal, Mike Remlinger, and some great bullpen players.

Couple that with the fact that every single batter is on steroids, you have a screwy league. Scores are looking more like football finals rather than baseball games.

I thought something might be done about this, but it has been over 3 seasons (30 games/day) for each one of my leagues.

Just ridiculous!

[chris2000001]

Yeah they know already, the reason their not answering is cause their working on it

[Dee Dreslough]

Hi!

Can you let me know which league, and which teams you want Clay to look at?

Thankee!

(edited to be actual English...) :)

-Dee

[Clay Dreslough]

I think Dee meant "let me know which league".

I've got reports of too much offense, and too little, depending on the league. So I'm having trouble finding the problem.

Also, when you let me know the league name, number and symptoms, please add whether the league started in 2002 (old rosters) or 2003 (new rosters).

Thanks!

Clay

[Oswalt44]

I've seen this happen on the CD-ROM game alot. I've played 2k3 ALOT the past year and I've noticed that guys with high HR allowed numbers tend to get punished more than the others. Usually my pitching 'requirement' is a ratio of 50 BF to 1 HR (or higher), and I was shocked to see that the Mogul 2k4 rosters have almost no pitchers that fall into that statistic. Could that be a big part of it maybe?

[stealthdog666]

Dee & Clay:

How about this one -
Western Mogul Baseball
http://www-2.sportsmogul.com/bb/bg.pl?page=Standings

5 teams with a team batting average over .320!
11 teams with a team batting average over .300
18 teams with a team batting average over .290
11 teams with a team ERA over 6.00
26 teams with a team ERA over 5.00

The ratings problem has swapped so bad in favor of pitchers that you would think it would be the other way around. Here is a discussion in another league about low ratings for newly created position players:
http://forum.sportsmogul.com/showthread.php?s=&threadid=35987

In NPL, the season just started, so I can't show you how many teams are over whatever, but here is a breakdown of the previous year's stats:

23 players hit over .340
40 players hit over .327
76 players hit over .306!!!
40+ players bombed 40 or more homeruns
1 SP had an ERA below 3.00
15 SPs had an ERA below 4.00


Those are the only 2 leagues I am in that used the reset rosters and both have exhibited extreme problems of outrageous offense.

[Dee Dreslough]

He's still working on it. He knows it's really fouled up, but he hasn't nailed it yet.

-Dee

[khkoenig]

NPL Returns, just finished its 4th season.

Leading hitter has 218 RBI's. 40th hitter in both leagues has 131 RBI's. 40 players have 38+ HR's. 40th hitter batting .331. 40 players have 130+ runs scored.

40th SP has ERA of 4.96. Top teams have team BA's of .338, .327, .323.

Small Market League, just finishing up its second season.

All but one AL team has BA of .279+. Only one AL team has an ERA under 5.05.

All NL teams have BA over .276. All but two have BA over .294. Lowest NL team ERA is 5.12.

Does this help?

[Dee Dreslough]

Clay spent all weekend on it, and he thinks he's got it beat.

Thank you for all your help tracking this problem down. It was the worst bug we've run into in a long time.

-Dee

[geoshale]

Any idea when??

[Dee Dreslough]

Before Midnight tonight is all I can promise.

[post edited, since I agree that the way that it was written before could easily be read as having attitude, which was not intended. Again, sorry 'bout that!]

-Dee

[geoshale]

I did notice. I was just wondering if it would be implemented after all the days sims are completed (6pm PDT), thats all.

I appreciate all the hard work that you and the rest of the Mogul staff puts in. Mucho thanks to Clay for the fix, especially spending all weekend working on it. It is a great site, and I recommend it highly. But why the attitude with my question?

Again, mucho Thanks to Clay for the Fix.

[DaveHorn]

Any more info we could find out about this fix???

Is the theory that this will fix both the "extreme offense" and "no offense" leagues???

My experience is that the 2003 leagues are extreme offense, but many 2002 leagues have no offense. Also what about 2001 leagues? Our 2001 league, AGML, is in the most extreme deadball I've seen an example of yet.

Since Clay asked which leagues are 2002 rosters or 2003 rosters, and left out 2001 rosters :) I'm worried what is going to happen to our league.

Any additional info about the fix would be greatly appreciated.

[Dee Dreslough]

I didn't mean it to sound snotty, actually. I'm sorry about that. I honestly thought you didn't see 'Today' in my post, since I mentioned it up in the title and didn't re-iterate down below.

-Dee

[Dee Dreslough]

I'll get Clay on to talk about the patch more, and what it does and doesn't do.

-Dee

[Clay Dreslough]

Ian is posting the patch right now. Here's the letter I wrote to inform BMO players of the new code:

===

Dear Baseball Mogul Online Users,

We have just posted new code to Baseball Mogul Online that should correct the recent problem with rising ERAs. I apologize for the delay -- this problem was much more difficult to fix than I had anticipated.

You should see the changes immediately, as every existing league will be re-calibrated the next time it is loaded, and the new simulation code will take over.

You will also notice changes in Scouting Grades. The relative values will remain (e.g. Barry Bonds will still have a higher Power Rating than Derek Jeter) but the absolute values may change as the ratings are recalibrated to correct for talent levels spiraling out of normal ranges.

If you notice problems or side effects with the new code, please post them to the Baseball Mogul Online forum for Bug Reports (http://forum.sportsmogul.com/forumdisplay.php?s=&forumid=9)

Thanks!

Clay, Dee and Ian
Sports Mogul Inc.

===

I do believe this correctly calibrates ALL league files, whether started with 2001, 2002 or 2003 roster files.

Clay

[Clay Dreslough]

New code is now up. Note that I screwed up with the 'League Average' row in Standings and it's showing dummy text. I'll get this fixed ASAP.

Clay

[geoshale]

Originally posted by Dee Dreslough
I didn't mean it to sound snotty, actually. I'm sorry about that. I honestly thought you didn't see 'Today' in my post, since I mentioned it up in the title and didn't re-iterate down below.

-Dee

No problema Dee... Thanks for the update. :)

[Cipster]

I thought I was going nuts when all the letter frades for my hitters went down a lot.

We are in the WLB and there wasn't a huge problem with hitters out of control. The ERA's were a bit high but nothing strange. I wonder how this will affect it.

[Cipster]

Oh and Clay thanks for the patch. :)

[Cipster]

OK there is a problem in the WBL :(

Just went through and looked at all the #'s

NO players with A+ Power Zilch, none what so ever.

ONE player with A power

NO players with A+ contact

FOUR players with A contact

This really kinda blows. We have officially enetered the dead ball era :(

[the3rdwiseman]

You forgot to fix the expense page. The drop-down menu still does not work when trying to view other teams.

I certainly wouldn't mind if you were to fix that while you are working on the league average bit.

byw - almost a nice touch with the league average. Can't say it's a positive yet, as I haven't seen it work yet. But I'll be sure to compliment you when it does work; as long as you fix the expense page.

[Clay Dreslough]

Cipster,

I'm assuming you mean the WBL as I think that's the only league you're in.

I just took a look at it and I see 14 players with A+ Power and 11 with A+ Contact. Seems just about right to me...

Did you try clicking 'Reset Search' in Find Players before searching for players?

Anyway, I've spent the last 2 hours looking over all the leagues including responding to bug reports like your post and things look better on the whole. There are still some leagues that will continue to sim with low ERAs, but this appears due to high defensive ratings and isn't something I can fix right now.

Clay

[Cipster]

Yeah that's the league. I have had #1 or #2 scouting since the league started so I don't think that's the problem.

I get nobody with A+ power or A+ contact.

Looking at my lineup I see huge drops (like whole letter grades) and serious downgrades in scouting reports. Franchise players are now just average.

Also my hitters that are free agents to be have dropped their demands by about 30% or so since their ratings plummeted. My 2B who wanted over 100 points now wants 80 my catcher wanted 49 and now wants 39.

Also the drops seem uneve. Certain playes have been affected more than others....

Let me know which players you get as having A+ power I'll look at them one by one.

[Clay Dreslough]

Monday night (May 12th) at midnight EDT, we posted some new code to Baseball Mogul Online that recalibrated all of the databases in order to correct the leagues with abnormally low or abnormally high offensive levels.

One of the (intended) side effects of this was that Scouting Grades were drastically altered in some leagues. Talent levels had gotten out of hand (e.g. a league with 100 players with A+ Contact) and the new code corrected this. The downside of this is that in a split second, an A+ player signed for 7 years became (for example) a B+ player.

So, we took down the new code. Instead of fixing the leagues all at once, we will be working to correct offensive levels over the long term primarily by tweaking rookie talent levels.

If you made any changes or trades between midnight and 2:30 am Eastern Time, these changes will be lost as we reverted to database backups around 2:30 am.

Other than that, you shouldn't notice any changes. We are continuing to work on this problem in a way that is minimally disruptive to the existing leagues.

Thanks,

Clay

[Mikekem]

So let me get this straight. The problem is hopefully going to be fixed by limiting the talent of the rookies that will be generated each year? I hope this is only a hitter thing, I can't imagine the pitchers getting any worse. I guess there is also no need for anyone to spend a dime on Farm anymore since that doesn't seem to matter anymore.

I run Sports Mogul League and we just finished up 2007. With the brand spanking new league averages I can tell that my American league batting average was .303 and the AVERAGE ERA of the league was 6.30!!!!!!!

I had over 40 guys hit over .334 and hit 40 homers, while on the pitching side only 4 guys had ERA under 4. I love this game guys but I've got owners threatening to quit left and right.

Just thought I'd let you hear from someone different

Mike

Sports Mogul League (http://www-1.sportsmogul.com/bb/leagues.pl?viewleague=882)

[FritzV]

I have to agree! I don't see the Rookie talent as an issue. If anything I think the overall rookies are worse now than they have ever been.

Are we ALL talking about 2003 databases versus 2002 databases?

Western Mogul Baseball still has a large number of teams with BA over .300 and ERA over 5.00.

I would say we have calmed a few down, BUT once the next season starts and things remain the same, I will have a mutiny on my hands!

[Clay Dreslough]

Originally posted by FritzV
I have to agree! I don't see the Rookie talent as an issue. If anything I think the overall rookies are worse now than they have ever been.

Are we ALL talking about 2003 databases versus 2002 databases?

Western Mogul Baseball still has a large number of teams with BA over .300 and ERA over 5.00.

I would say we have calmed a few down, BUT once the next season starts and things remain the same, I will have a mutiny on my hands!

Well, the rookie talent is the problem, in the sense that the batters are clearly overhshadowing the pitchers. There are two ways to fix this:

1) Implement some code that IMMEDIATELY reduces the talent level of every hitter in the league. This is like metaphorically going around the league and smashing every hitter in their wrists with a baseball bat. It will lower batting averages BUT it also provides quite a shock to someone who just signed a 120-point contract over 7 years for a guy with A+ Contact only to see that number drop to a B+ or thereabouts.

OR

2) Implement some code that SLOWLY reduces the talent level of new rookie hitters that come into the league while also SLOWLY tweaking the balance the between hitters and pitchers (e.g. similar to the effect that enlarging the strike zone would have) without significantly altering the production levels of the league's current offensive superstars.

On Monday night, we posted some code that accomplished solution #1, but the backlash was (understandably) severe when owners saw that their talented offensive players had been instantly handicapped.

Therefore, we are going the route of option #2. This means it may take 3-5 seasons for offense levels to return to normal in some leagues, but it also means there are no immediate drastic changes to the current players.

Clay

[FritzV]

http://www-2.sportsmogul.com/bb/bg.pl?page=scouting&id=13291882

Please tell me this isn't part of the fix? Tampa Bay received this player in Western Mogul Baseball as a Offseason Draft Choice.

218.00 - ERA
108- Blown Saves

This has to be a bad joke

Western Mogul Baseball = 1011

[Clay Dreslough]

Originally posted by FritzV
http://www-2.sportsmogul.com/bb/bg.pl?page=scouting&id=13291882

Please tell me this isn't part of the fix? Tampa Bay received this player in Western Mogul Baseball as a Offseason Draft Choice.

218.00 - ERA
108- Blown Saves

This has to be a bad joke

Western Mogul Baseball = 1011

That looks like it is unrelated to any recent code changes. Just a bug.

Clay

[DaveHorn]

Whatever you do Clay, please remember, there are leagues that have the exact opposite problem. In AGML the teams avg BA has been consistently .225-.230 the last 3 or 4 years, while teams ERA has been hovering around 3.00. If you were to whack our hitters on the wrist, I'd hate to see what would happen to our league.

[Oswalt44]

Clay - Please look at the pitcher ratings...I really do think that the high predicted HR's that alot of pitchers have has alot to do with why the ERAs are so high and hitting is out of control. I have Cleveland in the Small Market League (http://www-2.sportsmogul.com/bb/leagues.pl?viewleague=1413), and we're now in the 3rd season and my ERA has been the lowest in each season so far (If I rememer correctly), and I think this is almost solely due to grabbing a few of the VERY low number of low-HR pitchers in the database. I know in Mogul 2003, guys with high HR numbers were pretty much worthless, so I'm assuming it's the same way in 2004. Sure, other factors contribute alot, like OBA and BB, but I've seen HR's as one of the more decisive factors in pitching talent.

Take this guy (http://www-2.sportsmogul.com/bb/bg.pl?page=scouting&id=3185040) for example. With A, B+, A+, and B ratings, he should be the best pitcher in the league...but his HR's are ridiculously high and he's not. The fact that this league has a bunch of small parks doesn't help this either, but I play my home games in a cavernous stadium and I still can't get my ERA's down below 4.50. From when I used to play Mogul 2003 I used to only sign/trade for guys unless their BF to HR ratio was at least 50:1 or higher...and for the past 3-4 seasons I've succeeded in having an ERA in the mid-2's with only a slightly above average defense....and there's absolutely no way I can do that with this database.

So basically my whole point to the post is, I honestly don't think it's the sim engine, but rather the database and the high HR allowed numbers the pitchers have.

For example, in the Small Market League, I've listed the top 5 ERA guys from Both Leagues (at the time of this post), and their predicted stats according to the CD-ROM version.

Name - HR allowed/Batters Faced (Their SML ERA to this point)

Pedro Martinez - 14/735 (2.84)
Brian Lawrence - 16/782 (3.22)
AJ Burnett - 18/835 (3.42)
Andy Pettite - 15/835 (3.49)
Jason Schmidt - 15/700 (3.86)

All 5 would be considered "low predicted HR" guys in comparison to the rest of the pitchers in the database, who seem to average out around 24/800. Obviously all 5 guys are very skilled in other areas (OBA, BB, etc.), but if you take a cross-section of the guys near the bottom also with similar "other" skills (similar OBA, BB, etc.), yet high HR's, you'll see the success rate ERA-wise drops quite a bit.

Name - HR allowed/Batters Faced (Their SML ERA to this point)

Jarrod Washburn - 25/860 (4.71)
Curt Schilling - 33/995 (4.73)
Bartolo Colon - 22/835 (5.48)
Kevin Millwood - 22/802 (5.49)
Brad Radke - 24/834 (6.09)

That said, there could be many different factors contributing to this, but that's just my 2 cents on things, and I'd really hope if I could get a reply from Clay after spending alot of time writing this post, heh.

[cardfanstl]

Well, I for one have noticed an improvement in the All Star Mogul League.

Last year (2006) ERAs for both leagues were right around 6.00. And now, almost half-way through 2007 the NL ERA is 5.34 and the AL ERA is 5.65. These are a little better than the 2005 numbers.

We'll see how they hold up.

Dave