Question to the BBM Gods

[Cipster]

This topic was just brought up on the Mogul Enthusiast's board and I would like to hear your imput.
Far too often in the playoffs some obvious mismatches don't play out. 100-120 win teams with great pitching and lineups get bounced early from the playoffs by much weaker teams. Start pitcher with amazing numbers in the regular season get absolutely shelled and lineups that cranked out runs at amazing rates fall silent. I know it's supposed to be realistic and things like that happen in real life but we noticed it happening at really high rates.


So the questions are:
How do playoff games weigh regular season performance?
Overall scoring should be down in the playoffs but it appears it is not.
Is there a benefit for emphasising pitching or hitting in the playoffs?
Thanks

[Clay Dreslough]

This is a good question.

Playoff games use essentially the same engine used in the regular season. As the Mariners and A's proved this year. The best team doesn't always win a short series.

Pitching gets emphasized more in the playoffs simply by the fact that you can get away with a shorter rotaiton.

I realize the Yankees are only batting .177 in this World Series, but I haven't yet run into a larger body of data indicating that offense drops off in the playoffs (other than that attributable to the pitchers being used).

If you see such data, please let me know.

Thanks,

Clay

[Cipster]

Thanks Clay for the quick response. I think I just found myself a little Rob Neyer style project.
Pitching performances in the playoffs versus the regular season.
If I find anything exciting I'll let you know.
If I'm stumped I can always ask the good folks at the Baseball Prospectus...

[Cipster]

Ok some crude preliminary results
Arizona
Regular season team BA .267
Divisional series BA .237
NLCS BA .233
WS BA .197

St Louis
Regular season BA .270
Divisional Series .191

I could continue this with virtually every team and at least IMHO the dropoff is greater than merely the pitchers involved would suggest.
ALso it seems to me that postseason games are managed very differently than regular season ones. Just running the regular seson sim engine might not be the best way to reproduce it.
Teams will pitch some pitchers out of their normal sequence based on matchups. Teams tend to use closers more and longer (you want your best pitcher out there at all times). Teams play more for one run at a time. If someone is doing poorly a shorter hook applies.
One way to solve this would be to slow down the sim during playoffs to allow for micro management. Change strategy parameters to a more desperation setting rather than long term like in the regular season.
Any ideas on whetherf this makes sense?

[Clay Dreslough]

Originally posted by Cipster
Teams play more for one run at a time.

I'm not sure this is always the best idea though.

Brenly making Counsell sacrifice three times in game 4.

I mean, Womack doesn't get on base much as it is. If he can't steal a base then what's the point of having him in the lineup. You might as well have Mark Grace lead off because he gets on base more and can be bunted to 2nd just as easily as a fast runner...

That said, you may be right. And I'm trying to simulate "real baseball" here, not necessarily "smart baseball".

:)

Clay

[Cipster]

You are right. Brenly is under the impression that the manager should decide the outcome by calling for bunts etc.
I think Earl Weaver said that if you play for one run at a time that's all you get and sometimes you don't even get that...
I don't even want to get started on the Arizona brainless trust but let's just say he manages like he played 3rd base (only man in the history of the game to comit 3 errors at 3rd in one inning) :)
He was a catcher most of his career so maybe he took one too many foul tips to the mask (just like Tim McCarver)