Playoff Results

[khan]

Clay-

Can you please check out the 2016 playoffs for Mogul Enthusiast League? Considering I'm paying $ for this game, is it not supposed to be fun? I thought the Beta period was over.

If you check with other players in that league (Particleman, Cipster, avaynberg, metdenn, etc.), all of whom were the first to sign up for your game, you'd be surprised at how "accurate" your playoff simulation is.

I know you're really busy, but a little customer service would be appreciated. And like I said, check with anyone in that league. For the last 15 postseasons, the best teams have not advanced in the playoffs.

Khan

[James Grove]

Hi, Khan -

Just to clarify, the simulation we use in the playoffs is the same simulation that we use during the regular season. There are not two different engines.

I took a look at the playoffs in 2016. It's a little hard for me to tell which team is better, since I'm not familiar with most of the players in that year.

I do see that it's a championship between two wildcards, which is a bit unusual.

What do you think about the accuracy of the simulation in the regular season? Does the better team tend to win more often then?

I hope you don't feel that we have been ignoring you. We try to have responsive customer service.

Can some of the other players from MEL voice their opinions?

Thanks,
James

[Cipster]

Just to clarify, khan won an average of 105 games over a 15 year period. Not a WS title and lots of early exits.
I lost this year to Boston who was 2nd in my division by a wide margin (I won by 11 games). They somehow got homefield advantage too.
In the regular season the teams seem to average out pretty well but in the playoffs things get screwy. The postseason is managed differently in real life with strength emphasized by the manager and weknesses hopefully masked. My setup and short reliever were getting lit up for me this offseason but the computer kept going to them. Just looking at the scouting reports some lesser pitchers won games, I don't know I've given up trying to understand it. I don't even try to hold my breath in the playoffs any more. I just expect to lose despite having the best record in the league.
I've had 106 win (twice), 108 win and 101 win teams get beat in the first round. This season my 109 win team got stretched to 5 games (I was down 2-1) by a 89 win Oakland team before losing to a 97 win Boston team.

Just weird. Like I said the playoffs have become an afterthought for me because I don't know what to expect, the only year I won the WS was with a below average 93 win team (by comparison to other tems I had).
In the NPL the Pirates team I had went to the WS with a 270 payroll full of average players, I beat two superior teams in Arizona and Colorado. I felt bad for those owners.

[Clay Dreslough]

Hi Guys,

I am keeping an eye on these threads (thanks largely to James) since for a lot of people the results aren't matching the expectations. You're right that this game is about "fun", and getting that right takes work.

I am going to fix the home field determination bug. But that doesn't fix the stuff that's being complained about.

Cipster -- your post is very useful in terms of bringing up different areas that might need improvement.

The playoffs use the same engine as the regular season. So there are some different things I can do:

1) Force teams with more wins to win more in the playoffs.
2) Make teams with better pitchers (ala Arizona) win more in the playoffs.
3) Change playoff manager AI (e.g. use starting pitchers longer; use good starters from the bullpen).
4) Ignore the situation and let everyone suffer just like the fans in Houston.

As a related question, I posted a poll in this forum to get a better idea of WHY people think certain teams do well in the post-season.

And James is chugging several hundred playoffs as we speak and we'll look at the results.

Clay

[khan]

Its great to see that you guys are thinking of doing something about this thing. I'm sure the next GM who makes the playoffs 15 out of 16 years will appreciate it if he wins one of those years.

As for myself, I'm definitely quitting MEL and possibly BMO altogether. As I mentioned earlier, its no fun to build a winner, mow down teams in the regular season and lose in the playoffs EVERY year.

As Cipster mentioned, I averaged 105 wins a season including a 122 win season and a 118 win season (the 2 best records in league history). What he didn't mention was that I got these records in the TOUGHEST division in Mogul Enthusiast. If you look at the "history" pages of the NL West teams, you'll notice how tough the division was.

Just two years ago, 4 of the 5 NL West teams won 94 or more games. The best record in the rest of NL was also 94 wins. I mention this to let you know that I didn't make it to the playoffs all those years because of a weak division; I had great teams.


-Yes, I do think that the simulation is accurate during the regular season and the "better" team wins more often than not in the regular season.

[khan]

This is in response to Clay's "what I can do" list. Based on what Dturkenk's stats showed, and your poll shows, and the NY-Arizona series showed, and teams giving up stud prospects to get Ace pitchers for the playoffs shows;

Starting Pitching matters more in the playoffs than it does in the regular season.

With that, I present you the LA pitching staff that got swept in the first round LAST year (2015). Keep in mind these stats came in a division where 4 teams won 94 games or more.

QUOTE]Originally posted by khan
Let it be known that the 2015 Los Angeles team enters the postseason with quite possibly the greatest pitching staff (statwise as well as ratingwise) in the history of Mogul Enthusiast.
These rankings are based on the "Leaders" screen for "both leagues", so the rankings are for ALL OF BASEBALL.

LA's team ERA was 2.76, with 3 of its starters being in the top 6 and all 4 of its starters being in the top ten in ERA. Three of its starters were in the top 5 (including #1 and #2), and all four were in the top eleven in OBA. Three of them were in the top four in OSA. All four of them were in the top ten (including #1 and #2) in OOBA. All four of them were in the top seven (including #1, #2 and #4) in "RATIO." Between them, the four had 25 complete games and 13 shutouts.

Its fifth starter, who started 26 games, had the 13th best ERA (2.91), 8th best OBA (.230), and the 4th best winning % (.777) in baseball but was left out of the leaders screen for some reason.

The bullpen was no joke either. The closer saved 32 games, while blowing 6 and allowing only a .217 OBA. His ERA was 2.48. At the age of 32, he already has 330 saves.

setup man- 1.97 ERA , .222 OBA, 63.2 IP
short reliever- 2.39 ERA, .245 OBA, 79.0 IP
middle reliever- 1.98 ERA, .222 OBA, 59.0 IP
Long reliever- 4.55 ERA, .218 OBA, 25.2 IP, 26k/9 BB
spot starter- 3.00 ERA, .264 OBA, 9 IP [/QUOTE]

Again, these guys got swept in the first round.

[Particleman]

I'm not sure if it's a freak occurance or something is wrong with the game engine. But LA has had horrible luck in the playoffs. You'd expect a team with such great regular season performances to win at least one World Series. There have been teams in real life that have had good regular seasons and not won the WS (Cleveland was good over a long stretch and didn't win) but in real life there is nothing that compares to the stretch LA has been good in the Mogul Enthusiasts League and not won. I have never seen anything quite like it, in any league I've been in. I've seen teams that have consistently had the 3rd or 4th best record in other leagues, year after year and make the playoffs not win. But never a team that has had regular season performances this good. Like I said, I'm not sure if the game engine is to blame (maybe it is, I don't know), but LA has had a horrible string of bad luck. Personally, I expected them to win a WS a long time ago. It is frustrating to see a GM as involved and competitive (the way GMs should be in this game) as khan put together great teams year after year and not win at least once though.

[Cipster]

I think that using the same engine for the playoffs may be the problem. The regular season is a 162 game marathon but the playoffs are a 5 or 7 game sprint each series. While tactics that will give long term results are apropriate for the regular season those don't necessarily apply in the post season.
Arizona is a perfect example of this. If Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling had been used that way during the regular season their arms would have probably fallen off. BUT in a postseason series where the next game might be in April things are played differently. Say it's game 6 and your team is up by one in the 7th inning. Your #5 starter is actually better than your short reliever but the manager does not bring him in because it's a "short relief situation:. No way. Randy Johnson got a save this WS because he was better than whoever would have come out of the bullpen.
I know that it would be hard to implement but I think the computer should determine who the best pitcher is on the staff regardless of role and bring then in close game situations in the playoffs (not the next 2 starters obviously). Consider this though, someone with A endurance should easily be able to pitch an inning and then start 2 days later.
This is just a small example but I really think a better AI in the playoffs is what would help. A way for a team to maximize its advantages and mask the deficiencies. Have a shaky short reliver? He should not even be allowed near a baseball in a key game. Have an extra starter that is better, he should come in and give you a few key innings. A deep bench with lots of speed, pinch-run and steal bases like crazy..etc.
I think what would be useful is to be able to convert letter grades into numerical values and compare rosters and players used. Then put those teams through some short series with different AI implementations. I am willing to bet that the more "there is possibly no tomorrow" approach will give you outcomes that are closer to the talent levels of those teams.
By shortening the roster (don't use your mere inning eaters or roster fillers in the playoffs) and being less constriced by regular season roles the good teams will do better than they do now.
That is just my opinion. I don't have the tools to test that but it's feasible by you guys. Just assign roster talent levels, run the sims and look at winning percentages in short series and see if they match. Change the Ai and see if it changes the outcomes. Just a suggestion.

[metdenn]

All I can say about all this is my 105 win season I got... 1st round exit (I beleive I was swept too).

Last year I BARELY made the playoffs, scampered in with a wild card... and won it ALL. In fact my ace was injuried, and my players underproformed the entire season. I also STROMED through the playoffs.

I am glad I won, but there does seem to be something amiss, and to lose such a great player and GM as Khan would be a tradgety (sp).

[misterblond]

I think Mr. Dreslaugh should institute a 'special' edition game for managers such as Cipster and Khan, where the team with the best record absolutely MUST win the world series. Wait, that's just like having no playoffs... Oh well... cancel the playoffs then, or there may be a "tragedy".

Seriously though, in real life, playoffs are not instituted because they determine the best team that year. They're in place for the 'spectacle' and 'entertainment' value. Take most European soccer leagues for instance. They do not have a playoff format, so the best team does win, but often in an anti-climactic manner. (To counter this they have league cups on the side which use a strict elimination format.) So, you have to accept the fact that you will lose to a lesser team.
I know that someone will respond to this post by stating all sorts of pitching stats, but please spare me. The main problem is that people only notice when there is a 'problem' that makes them lose -- they don't notice all the other stuff. I don't think the playoff simulation should be changed from the regular season. Of the 4 possible changes listed by Clay, I think that only #3 would be good, since that is the only difference in real baseball. The players' skills are exactly the same, but the managers do manage games differently, i.e. more reckless abandon when it comes to leaving guys in games longer, or even using other quality starters in relief. We're getting into AI territory here, so it wouldn't be easy -- trade-offs for managers between bringing in the best pitcher to win the game at hand, or save him for tomorrow.

As a last note, from reading all the complaints (on other thread too) the one thing that stayed with me was the 'season-fatigue' possibility. Maybe there is a significant reduction in skill for pitchers who toss many innings during the season -- there is a definite coorelation between good pitchers and throwing more innings, so they would be the ones usually penalized. I'm sure that's been looked into though.

P.S. Just play the game and enjoy -- report bugs, but don't have a coronary doing it... :)

[khan]

Mister Blond-

-Please note that Cipster and Particleman and metdenn have all won championships in Mogul Enthusiast. So your theory that they're complaining because they lose just went out the door. You better start chasing it.

-How many seasons have you played Baseball Mogul Online in a competitive league?

-How many times did your team make it to the playoffs despite playing in the toughest division in that league?

-How many times did your team have the best record in the league?

-How many "actual" baseball or Soccer teams can you name which went to the playoffs ranked #1 or #2 and lost all 15 of the times they made the playoffs?

-If your answer to question 1 or 2 was less than 15, then you should withhold judgement until your answer to those questions changes.

-If you think you're just so wonderful, I challenge you right here and right now to a $500 bet that I will beat you in the full draft league we are both in. No whining. Whoever has a better record at the end of season 1, gets $500. If your nads are melting, we can make it a bragging rights competition instead. I notice KC is available so I'll try to take over KC.

Being that its currently 12/8 10: 17 PM EST, the draft order hasn't even been determined for that league and no one has an advantage over anyone else. So show your guts and back up your mouth.

[khan]

One more thing Mr Blond,

I think the prescription for your reading glasses is outdated. If it was not outdated you would have been able to read this portion of James Grove's post.


Originally posted by James Grove
Hi, Khan -

Can some of the other players from MEL voice their opinions?

Thanks,
James

Were you a player of Mogul Enthusiast League Mr. Blond?

[takaplan]

Guys,
Please stop bickering!

You both have the right to your opinions...slap on the wrist for both of you! ;)

We are trying to improve the playoff situation. Khan has been a vaulable help, and we thank him for his data he has given us. But, we want to hear everyone's opinion.

And we don't discriminate based on post count ;)

Tom

[misterblond]

You responded exactly the way I expected you would -- people like you always do. You missed the general point, and concentrated on one part which (obviously) was meant as a joke. Read my post over again; it obviously wasn't meant as any sort of put down and contrary to what you may say, I am well within my right to make it. I don't recall saying that there absolutely was no problem; if you had read the post to the end you'd notice that I actually agreed that there may be. Like I said, report the bug, fine, but don't have a heart attack doing it. You challenge a person you don't even know to a bet because of what? I'm not even going to address statements like "if you think you're so wonderful"...huh? Take what other people say in a stride, and don't be so antagonistic -- this after all is a f-o-r-u-m --> where people give their opinions. Relax, and have some fun. I'm obviously new to this, so I don't know how well I will do, but in the spirit of good hearted competitiveness, I will accept your 'honor' challenge. Peace out.

[khan]

Lets take things one at a time here.


Originally posted by misterblond
The main problem is that people only notice when there is a 'problem' that makes them lose -- they don't notice all the other stuff.

-You are wrong on this because Cipster, who you named in your post, noticed this problem even though it made him win.


Originally posted by Cipster
I have no idea why my Pirates are in the World Series. I would like to apologize to Colorado and Arizona both of which have much better rosters than mine and yet got bounced by the Miracle Pirates. It really makes no sense, my ace pitchers are Jimmy Andrson who is getting old but still pitching like a champ and Tony Armas Jr. who's arm is hanging by a couple of loose ligaments. He seems to spend more time on the DL than on the mound (he even got hurt in the NLDS). To top that Manny Aybar is having a magical season (and hopes to cash in on it, he's asking for 85 points a year for an extension).

Maybe Chicago will bring some sanity into this and give us a good spanking in the WS. We'll see if the BBMO gods are still on our side. Until then I'll enjoy the ride (and shake my head over it) :D

BREAKING NEWS:
Manny Aybar has announced that the reason the Pirates reached the WS is indeed of supernatural origin. At the beginning of the season he purchased some trinkets from a store owned by an elderly gentelman wearing a black cape and sporting long fingernails. The gentelman informed him that he could help him, Jimmy Anderson and Tony Armas Jr. become winners again. To make a long story short after the season is over we are all moving to a monastery, buying a lot of rosary beads and hope that we can redeem our eternal souls.


Originally posted by Cipster
In the NPL the Pirates team I had went to the WS with a 270 payroll full of average players, I beat two superior teams in Arizona and Colorado. I felt bad for those owners.

-Metdenn also proves you wrong by noticing the problem that made him win.


Originally posted by metdenn

Last year I BARELY made the playoffs, scampered in with a wild card... and won it ALL. In fact my ace was injuried, and my players underproformed the entire season. I also STROMED through the playoffs.

I am glad I won, but there does seem to be something amiss

Read Particleman's post again. He never said anything about his teams losing. He did not lose because of the problem, but still noticed it. He was the commisioner of the league for God's sake.

[khan]

Now that your main point has been disproven, lets move on to your smaller points.


Originally posted by misterblond
I don't recall saying that there absolutely was no problem;

No, but you did say....


Originally posted by misterblond
I don't think the playoff simulation should be changed from the regular season.

Have you ever heard "if its not broken, don't fix it"? When you say that it doesn't need fixing, aren't you basically saying its not broken? If you don't think the simulation should be changed, then you obviously don't think there's a problem. So yes, Mr Blond, you are saying there "was no problem."



Originally posted by misterblond
So, you have to accept the fact that you will lose to a lesser team.


So, it is a fact that I will have to lose to lesser teams. A fact? In that case, I should try to be the lesser team, because according to you, its a fact that the better team would lose to the lesser team.

I should try to get as many F contact hitters and F control pitchers as I can to make sure I'm the lesser team. That was what I was doing wrong for 16 f-r-e-a-k-i-n years. I was collecting guys with A contact, A power, A control, A everything. And I had more of them than anyone.

Thats why I'm so upset. Because the lesser teams DO WIN. But I don't have to accept that "fact", because it is only a "fact" in BMO, not in real life. Why do you think Jordan's Bulls won? Why do you think Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling's Diamondbacks won? Because they were lesser teams?

Your logic, on this point at least, is faulty and so is BMO's gameplay. You two have something in common.

Congratulations!

[khan]

Mr Blond-

I could keeping picking your arguments apart all day, as if you were the Dallas Cowboys' current secondary. But you admitted you are new, and I want to same some smack for when I beat you in Full Draft League, so I'll stop with these two points.

1. I addressed your questions/concerns/comments to some length. Can you please return the favor by answering these questions, which I'm asking you for the second time?

-How many seasons have you played Baseball Mogul Online in a competitive league?

-How many times did your team make it to the playoffs despite playing in the toughest division in that league?

-How many times did your team have the best record in the league?

-How many "actual" baseball or Soccer teams can you name which went to the playoffs ranked #1 or #2 and lost all 15 of the times they made the playoffs?


2.
Originally posted by misterblond
You responded exactly the way I expected you would -- people like you always do.

Either try to play it straight up hard and tell me exactly what you mean by "people like you"

OR



Originally posted by misterblond
I'm obviously new to this, so I don't know how well I will do, but in the spirit of good hearted competitiveness, I will accept your 'honor' challenge. Peace out.

try to be civil (as you were in your above comment) and don't write remarks that you "know for sure" will make others angry.

Stick to one side and keep it real!!!

[misterblond]

... for still not getting the point. Most of your rant is still concentrated on the first paragraph of my original post. If you had noticed, the second paragraph started with the phrase "but seriously though..." So there goes half your little tirade. Maybe I should clarify my original post for you even further since you obviously couldn't grasp it.

Here we go...
Paragraph #1 -- pure joke (if you didn't realize that, please stop reading now because you might hurt yourself)

Paragraph #2 -- starts out by talking about why playoffs exist (in an indirect way... maybe that was the problem) and how they don't necessarily have the best team win. Went on to a soccer example which somehow got jumbled in your head because you started talking about how many soccer teams got into the playoffs and then kept losing -- well I specifically said that they don't have playoffs so your entire point is moot. The have so-called league cups which are a strict tournament format, and quite often (surprise, surprise) produce an unexpected winner. The next part talks about the general psychology of all people to notice things that are not in their favour. i.e. Did you ever ask yourself (not that I think this is true) if maybe the problem is with the season simulation and not the playoff? Your reasoning (while it's most likely true) led you to automaticaly assume that you losing is the abberation. Simple obvservation, but yet you devoted pages of quotes to attempt to "disprove" it. The last half of the paragraph is devoted to how the playoff simulation should possibly be changed, so even someone without your mental acumen could see that I obviously think changes may be warranted. Although, I certainly did state that the way the game is simulated should not change from the regular season to the playoffs. Those two things are not mutualy exclusive, since it is possible to tweak such things as homefield advantage and the way the games are managed because those things ARE different in the playoffs. The matchup between a batter and a pitcher does not change in anyway, so I don't think that should be changed.

Paragraph #3 -- once again, talks about how there may be a problem. Most of your points are based on me saying that there is absolutely no problem, so that undermines another %40 of your response. Maybe (hopefully) you didn't see it.

Hopefully that explains my first post. If not, please don't address it again because I think it's been explained as clear as it gets.

Ok, so that "disproves" %92 of your last two posts. As for the rest...
You latched on to me saying that it's a fact that you will lose to lesser teams -- I meant not every time - should have inserted a [sometimes] in there.

Next, you wrote...
"Thats why I'm so upset. Because the lesser teams DO WIN. But I don't have to accept that "fact", because it is only a "fact" in BMO, not in real life. Why do you think Jordan's Bulls won? Why do you think Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling's Diamondbacks won? Because they were lesser teams?
Your logic, on this point at least, is faulty and so is BMO's gameplay. You two have something in common."

A) Lesser teams DO often win, if they didn't there would be no point in even playing the play-offs. It is a fact in real life. NFL is a great example of this because (like the baseball playoffs) there aren't as many games, so weak teams often squeak through.

B) Jordan's Bulls won because he had a great supporting cast (I don't see the Wizards lighting the NBA on fire), and because basketball is more easily impacted by a single player than baseball (I hope that I don't have to explain that to you), and because they also got lucky. You need luck to win. You obviously don't have it -- call it 'damnum fatale'.

C) By bringing up the Diamondbacks, you discredit EVERYTHING that you have said thus far in all these posts. FYI, the Diamond Backs were not the best team in baseball, but before the playoffs even started I knew that they stood a great shot. That's why I profited nicely on that 6 to 1 shot. If I remember correctly, the odds on the Yankess, Seattle, Atlanta and maybe another team or two were smaller. They were a playoff-built team because games (pitching to be more exact) are managed differently in the post season, so the D-Backs benefit.

Also, I wanted to address the regurgitated point about making the playoffs 15 times and not winning the world series. I'd call that bad luck, especially if your teams were as "super-duper" as you say, but NOT STATISTICALY UNLIKELY. I'm no stats major, but if you took all even matched teams, the odds for any team to go all the way are 1/8 right? Well, it's not that much of a stretch to go 0 for 15 at 1/8 odds, no matter how good you team is (let's say that due to your teams 'manifest magnificence' those odds could be reduced to 1/4 or 1/3... it's still not a given). I've seen people go 0 for 15 playing the roullette wheel betting black or red at odds that are almost 1 in 2!!! Do they go to the casino and complain about their money (like you did) because it didn't seem statisticaly correct? NO!!!

Bottom line ->
My main point the entire time is not that you're wrong! You have a right to air your grievence, but don't lose sleep over it, and don't get so antagonistic. That's all I was trying to say! Re-lax.

I apologize to everyone else for the length of this post and for using this thread for a back and forth, but I'm sure there's some entertainment value there. :)

Arrgh... I just saw your last addendum, so I'll address it now although I'm kind of tired.
First, by 'people like you', I mean antagonistic internet posters who 'attempt' to take people's innocuous comments and 'take them apart' and usually fail much like you did.
As far as playing in 'straight up' and answering your questions, I have no need to. I already said I'm new to BMOL, and your questions are a weak attempt at drawing attention to that point. (how that hurts me, I don't know)
Lastly, I must commend your attempt to try and jump on that high horse in the end with the 'civil' remark because I've certainly not been uncivil, and you... well... I won't stoop to your level. Until your last post I thought we were having a simple little discussion. As far as your 'smack talking' abilities, let's just say I'm not overly concerned. I just wish I could come up with great similes like the Cowboys' secondary.
Anyways I'm sleepy, so I'll state the bottom line again: R E L A X.

P.S. This post is way too long, so please try to keep yours short so I don't have to respond at such length.

[misterblond]

They irony is not lost on me, pertaining to the fact that I was being a little like "one of those people" during that last post.

[Cipster]

Just to clarify, I have spent countlesss hours pouring over scouting reports in the Mogul Enthusiasts' League. I have had the #1 payroll #1revenue and #1 expenses for the last 10 seasons. I have gone to work late because I wanted to check out some obscure thing like "which reliever should I target for my middle relief next year" or "which rookie should I buy from a small market team to fill my gap at 3rd". I have won in a division that 93 wins gets you 3rd place. The Toronto manager finished 3rd despite winnning over 90 games with regularity. The MVP, CyYoung and ROY have come from my team with regularity. Yet, for all this work, sweat, and blood I have one World Championship.
Then, I decide to join the NPL. I take over a Pittsburgh team with 1/2 the revenue of the Yankees, no real great talent, some ageing or injury prone starters, ONE good batter and a bunch of scrubs. 1st season I won 100 games for whatever reason. I checked on my team regularly but I made no significant moves except signing some 1-3 pt. scrub FA that were better than the bums I had. Two seasons later I went to the playoffs almost by default (2 teams in my division had better batting averages or ERA's yet I won more games). I beat Col and Ari who had better rosters by far. It was not a matter of opinion: they had better teams by far. I lost in the WS but the fact is I really had no business being there.
I don't own the CDROM version of the game but I played the demo about 15 times. I took some powerhouses to the playoffs like NY, Atl etc. and some small market teams like Ana. The roster talent seemed to be often unreleated to playoff performance.
I think this type of playoff weirdness only shows up for people that put a lot of work into their teams. I worked hard at making NY the best team in the league. I played in one of the toughest divisions in the game. Boston is 1st tier, Toronto is very well manged, TB is raking in lots of money despite being supposedly small market. Despite playing good teams in the regular season I averaged over 100 wins a season for 11 seasons. The result is 1 World Series. That just seems out of whack.
I actually am a stats freak and I actually calculated my odds in a 3
year span to lose to a lesser team (Oakland beat me 3 years in a row in the 1st round, they played in a weak division they made the playoffs one time despite being under .500). The odds were less than 6%. Somehow it happened. I actually wrote Clay and offred to help test the game using statistical analysis. I am getting my MD/PhD right now and I do research daily. I use stats all the time and I analyze large amounts of data regularily. I did not ask to be paid or anything but I never heard back even the old disguised brushoff.
The idea that the same sim should be run in the playoffs in absolutely inane. Teams do not play the same in the playoffs. I have posted about this before but I will reiterate: A 162 GAME MARATHON SHOULD NOT BE MANAGED THE SAME WAY AS 5 OR 7 GAME SPRINT.
The thing that upsets me the most is that there is this smug: our game is great, the sim is just fine, you are just a bitter ***** because you did not win attitude emmanating from other players. I have played this game for month now almost religioulsy. I have sacrificed tons of time effort and passion (not to mention money) into it but every time I voice a complaint I get this type of reply from the folks at BBMO: "do the research and if we deign to find your argument worthy of consideration we might look into it" response. The playoff sims are screwed up. The teams with better talent lose with alarming frequency.
I just don't feel that this is relly being taken seriouly. How many times did I complain about the home field advantage being awarded to the wrong team before being acknowledged? If something as basic and clear cut is being ignored what are the odds of something more subtle being brushed aside? Obviouly pretty good.
I have played this game in beta and in its final version. I have posted every bug I found and I have spent a lot of time trying to help improve the gameplay. I think the playoff sim is a weakness but obviously this view is not shared by everyone (including the people that make the game).
I don't think this is apparent to anyone unless they spend the time and effort to play this game religiously. So misterblond just wait and see. After 10 or more seasons of excellence you might agree with us (if you actually spend the time to put together such seasons).
What is revealing too is that the people bringing this issue up are the same people that other players nominated for best GM's in BBMO. Maybe it's not a mere coincidence. But then again everything can be explained away by mere chance in BBM.

[Seiryuu]

Dear Cipster... two points

To your own acknowledgment, you do sound bitter. I don’t really understand why, as in the end this is only a game. Your studies are so much more important to the world right now, then the workings of BBMogul. Through those you have a chance to make things better in a substantial way for many!

My second point is that in real life the best team does not always win the World Series. The Diamond Backs were not one of the five best teams in baseball last season. They won on two wings and a prayer of an offense. This is not a lone event, since the invention of the divisional playoff system this happens frequently (i.e., ’88 Dodgers, my beloved ’80 Phils, ‘97 Marlins, ’87 Twins, ’69 Mets and the list goes on.) The point is, even in real life, the best team frequently does not win a short series. My two favorite teams from the ‘70s and ‘80s, the Phils and the Expos, pummeled the opposition but could never take the golden ring.

As far as the Mogul CD goes, I have played nearly 200 seasons and often have fielded the best squad in baseball, only to be bounced in the first round of the playoffs. **** happens, hopefully daily. On other occasions I have put out a lesser squad and won it all. FATE! I will never forget game 7 of the 2016 WS where my underdog Cubs tied the game on a three run homer with two outs in the bottom of the ninth by my 3B and, down three, won it on his grand slam with two outs in the 14th!

At the end of the day, as Big Mac said while chasing Maris, “this is only a game, go be with your kids.” In your case, please use your MD to help the world be a better place. With all the drama right now, we need more people giving things of substance back to humanity. Best wishes on your work.

[Cipster]

Ok so I was bitter and it is just a game. Don't woory I won't allow BBMO to ruin my research :)

I guess given what I do, I always think that if I see something that appears to be an odd pattern I can design some way of testing it out. In my field of work you don't just shrug your sholders when comfronted with something like this and just assume it's some unexplainable mystery. The thing that bothers me the most is that this is the umpteth time we bring this up and this is not just me, some very involved and good GM's have seconded my subjective (so far) impression that the playoffs turn up some odd results.. The responses to this have mostly been either: we don't think there is a problem and you are probably imagining things or you are just a crybaby who can't handle losing. I am competitive and I do like winning but I don't think I'm a whiner I just don't like losing because of an anomaly. The frustrating thing (to me) is that so far there is no way to know if it even is an anomaly.

[misterblond]

You're right, I may very well agree with you after a few seasons. The only problem I had was with the way you guys were going about voicing your opinion -- but, maybe this is due to you being frustrated at not getting a response. I've not been around to see all that. In playing the CD game in the past, I had noticed that often my 'better' team (we all have to remember that this is often subjective) got bounced early in the playoffs. But, in the seasons when my team was absolutely dominating (120+ win seasons, 9 times out of 10 I would have a good playoff run. I've actually always found the first round to be the toughest to get through, probably due to how short it is. Anything can happen in a five game series, and like I said, I agree with your assessment that the playoff games should be handled differently by the 'manager'.

[jokerswild]

I know that Khan had an incrediable team in the toughest division ever. I would say that he would have won the WS at least a few times.

I used to think this was just khan rambling about how he always got messed over, but I have seen it first hand. Great teams......I mean the type of teams that come around once every 20-30 years, don't win the WS. EVER!!! I am not complaining completely, but something does seem messed up.

[Godard]

First year in nysteinbrenner's ironfisted MLB Equalized, and after talking some preseason smack, narrowly made the playoffs and swept my division series, and then swept the NLCS.

I love the playoff engine!

Don't change a thing!

[avaynberg]

I agree with most of what Khan and Clipster have said and it is great ot hear that we are working on some real solutions. I am hot sure if this had anything to do with it, but it seems like some of the confusion in the system is that when the playoffs start the rotation options switch and I'm thinking that something like that might be causing a glitch. It seems the biggest part of the game that is being effected is the pitching, so is it possible that the engine is responding differently to the short rotation. I know it was an issue before the change was made but might have a connection. I know the playoffs are not a perfect system in the real game either, but the percentages of the best teams advancing is a lot highter. I don't expect to win every World Series (but it would be kind of cool) and I don't think anyone else does either but their are certain things that just ad up. As for the suggestions, there are a couple I would like to ad for consideration.
1: Change the rotation set-up for the post season to be the same as the regular season and see if that helps.
2: Try a seperate playoff engine where players ratings and regular season performance have a greater impact on the post season performance (sory Barry Bonds and Scott Brocius, the real life mirror twins).
3: Put in values for regular season performance for teams and players. The computer will still leave a lot to chance, but it might balance the power to the power teams (theres a reason the Yankees have built dynasties).
I would love to hear as many suggestions as possible, if we come up with enough ideas those same percentages say that at least one or two of them will help improve the playoffs.

[Schaefling]

I am a big supporter of Khan's because he has voiced many of the same complaints I have with the playoff system. I also really appreciate all the time Cipster has spent examining this game. Even though his real life work is more important all I can say is thanks a lot for all the work you have done looking into BBMO's playoff problems. As for Particleman and Jokerswild they are savvy players whose opinions are worth hearing. I particularly appreciated Jokerswild admitting he had changed his mind on the subject the harder he looked at it.

I also have to add that while I don't think MisterBlond understands the incredible frustration many excellent players have gone through over many MONTHS of play because of real problems with the playoff engine in BBMO at the same time I thought he made some excellent points.

Like MisterBlond I think that Clay's solution number three is the best way to go. Please don't just solve the problem by forcing teams with the best records and the best pitchers to win more. That's the easy way out.

I also want to mention that, in my opinion, MisterBlond was right on the mark bringing up the fatigue/endurance factor for pitchers in the playoffs. I really think he is on to something here and I hope Clay and James look at this more closely.

[Schaefling]

I want to start by thanking Clay and his staff for continuing to work to improve the playoff engine. As frustrating as problems with the playoff engine has been for many players in BBMO I can only imagine how frustrating it must be for the designer/developer and his staff.

I have some questions which I thought might get us all thinking more constructively about the problem.

James Grove mentioned that the same game engine is used for the playoffs as for the regular season. This made me want to ask the following questions:

1. Are the playoffs basically an extension of the regular season or are they more like a separate mini-season where players and pitchers actual performances in the regular season are basically thrown out and results are pretty much based upon actual ratings with a random factor thrown in?

2. Does fatigue play a part in the playoffs? In other words, do lots of innings pitched and lots of at bats during the regular season increase the chances of players and pitchers being tired in the playoffs and performing below average because of this?

The answers to these two question, in my opinion, could shed new light on just what's wrong with the playoffs.

[Seiryuu]

Let us see if we can finally put this one to bed!

To be very blunt... historically in MLB, the team with the BEST seasonal record in the playoff only goes on to win the World Series 25% of the time.

Since the start of the Divisional Playoff Format (including the oddity of 1981) the team with the best record has only won 1 out of 8 tries. The stats are as follows:

Best Record = 1 Win (Yankees)
2nd Best = 2 Wins
3rd Best = 2 Win
4th Best = 1 Win
5th Best = 0 Win
6th Best = 1 Win
7th Best = 0 Win
8th Best = 1 Win (Yankees again!)

In the previous format for the League Championship Series, 1969 to 1993 (excluding 1981,) the respective stats are as follows:

Best Record = 7 wins
2nd Best = 5 wins
3rd Best = 8 wins
4th Best = 4 wins

As such, I don't think the issue is how your team is being managed during the playoff, but rather that it is very tough for a team to win a short series, let alone three series in a row! This is especially evident as the best record in baseball has only won 1 of the last 7 tries. Surprisingly, the team with the third best record in baseball has won 10 out of 32 tries (SABR anyone?)

In summary... I don't really think you can blame the game... the concerns seem to be more a result of the MLB playoff format then with Clay and Co. Anyone else in favor of 154 game seasons!

[Schaefling]

This a game people. And serious gamers want games that are predictable to a certain degree in order to to be able to effectively evaluate their game performance.

Endless citations about real life statistics miss the point. Players with specified ratings should perform to those ratings I would say at least 70 percent of the time.

And when players put together great teams and usually teams that are far better than any real life team they should expect those teams to do well in the playoffs. Not all the time but most of the time.

[khan]

Originally posted by Seiryuu


Since the start of the Divisional Playoff Format (including the oddity of 1981) the team with the best record has only won 1 out of 8 tries. The stats are as follows:

Best Record = 1 Win (Yankees)
2nd Best = 2 Wins
3rd Best = 2 Win
4th Best = 1 Win
5th Best = 0 Win
6th Best = 1 Win
7th Best = 0 Win
8th Best = 1 Win (Yankees again!)



Seiryuu- I would have no problem if we had these type of results in BMO playoffs. Unfortunately, the results are more like this, at least in the leagues I've been in. Out of the 8 teams in the playoffs, here are their chances of winning based on their records.

Best Record = 5%
2nd Best = 5%
3rd Best = 10%
4th Best = 10%
5th Best = 10%
6th Best = 20%
7th Best = 20%
8th Best = 20%


This is a rough estimation. I'm busy with finals right now, but I plan to get the exact stats in the next couple of days.

-If your read the posts in this thread again, you'll notice that most people agree about one thing. In BMO, the team that "barely sneaks" into the playoffs does better than the teams who had the top 3 or 4 records. This happens EVERY SINGLE YEAR. Is that realistic?



Originally posted by Godard
narrowly made the playoffs and swept my division series, and then swept the NLCS.

I love the playoff engine!

Don't change a thing!

[Seiryuu]

hey Khan... sounds great... let us wait for you to break free and then look at the playoff stats...

regarding the previous post about teams with a significant quality differential not winning the WS... I would bring forth the law of diminishing returns... the depth that helped a team win in the regular season is not going to have impact in a shortened playoff series... Also... don't forget that in general I would speculate that the winning percentage / quality of the teams making the playoffs in BBMO is higher then in MLB (589 since 1969)... that would mean that there would not be a great a differential between the best team in the playoff and the worst...

Additionally... what use is to have a model that is statistically perfect, but has no representation in the "real world." One of the most intriguing things about baseball is that the best team / hitter / pitcher does not always win... (i.e., statistically there was only a 4.7% chance that both Womack and Grace would get a base hit in the bottom of the ninth against Rivera (Grace prob at .223 / Womack at .209... thanks to Bill James for the formula ) ... but yet they did and the DBack... no matter their statistical inferiority with the sixth best record in the playoffs... took home the "cup."

I agree that it is sometimes very hard for us statheads to swallow the fact that the better team on paper does not win... but the beauty of baseball is that on anyone day anyone can win... and so when it comes to the fact that our BBMO dynasty teams are not winning the WS on a regular basis... I would return the statement that that is probably closer to reality then our desire to prove the stats right...

[misterblond]

After my comments about this thread, many people told me to wait and see until I play a few seasons. Well, this may be premature, but I've played two seasons in the Equalized 30 league and must say that so far my mind is not changed. As the Minnesota Twins I had a low payroll in the first season (made 98pts profit) but somehow managed to stumble into a wild card berth with an 86-76 record. I was promptly swept 3 to none in the first round by the East division winners Boston. Seems reasonable. In the following year, I made some free-agent signings and some big trades (ie Pedro Martinez) and went on to a 108-54 record with a team ERA of 3.02. I lost all of 4 games in the playoffs and had a team ERA of 2.20 en route to a World Series win. My collective opponents had an ERA of 5.26 against me. None of the teams I faced had won more than 91 games during the regular season, so that ERA is not unreasonable.

This seems to support the notion that there is nothing really wrong with the playoff engine. (Even if I had not won the world series, it would still be so.) While this is an extremely small sample, it does still hold some weight. None of the other samples cited were huge, and as some people have mentioned, anything can happen in the span of a few years and the best teams don't always win but sometimes do.

[hwt1313]

I have to say that I am totally satisfied with the playoff results in EML over the past 5 seasons. I run the Mets, and here are the results:

2008 Best record in both leagues, won World Series
2009 Barely made playoffs, lost in second round
2010 Best record in both leagues, lost in first round*
2011 Best record in both leagues, won World Series
2012 Best record in National League, lost in World Series to the only American League team with a better record

Twice, I had the best record and won the World Series.
Once, only 1 team had a better record, and they beat me in the World Series.
Once, I barely made the playoffs, and didn't make the World Series.

All of these seem inline with expectations, except for 2010. That season, I had the best record in both leagues, but suffered from a bout of stupidity that destroyed my team in the playoffs. The last 2 sims of the season, I replaced my top 3 pitchers with minor leaguers to give them a rest. Then, I forgot to put them back for the playoffs. I lost all 3 playoff games because mediocre minor leaguers were pitching.

With this said, people are still complaining in the forums about making the playoffs and not the World Series over those 5 seasons. I have to say that the most deserving teams appear to have won.

I know that this is a very small sample, but it seems that most of the complaints are based on single teams in single leagues. Remember, every playoff results in 1 happy GM and 7 GMs who think they deserved better.

[takaplan]

I agree with HWT1313. I am commish of EML, and my Houston team has been pretty much an NL Central Dynasty over the past 13 years. We've only missed the playoffs 3 times, but we have only made it to the World Series once. It puzzles me a little bit because we have had the best rotation in baseball for 10+ years, and guys that have ERA's in the high 1's and low 2's are losing in the playoffs constantly. But, I'm not complaining ;)

Tom