Go Purple!

[thejimmyst91]

I am back to try again. I figured out a way to start over new with a team. I am not going to start running the team until after the 2004 season. The computer will run the team until that time. Should be fun. Mogul rating, 7.03 rosters. I am just going to sim the season and take whatever team ends up with the #2 overall pick.

2004 Season Recap
Playoffs
Division Series

Astors(102-60) vs. Phillies(94-68)
Game 1:PHI3 HOU2
Game 2:PHI5 HOU7
Game 3:HOU3 PHI10
Game 4:HOU0 PHI2

Padres(95-67) vs. Cardinals(91-71)
Game 1:STL4 SDP3
Game 2:STL8 SDP5
Game 3:SDP7 STL2
Game 4:SDP5 STL7

Yankees(100-62) vs. White Sox(86-76)
Game 1:CHW2 NYY6
Game 2:CHW2 NYY5
Game 3:NYY1 CHW0

Angels(100-62) vs. Red Sox(94-68)
Game 1:BOS1 ANA2
Game 2:BOS7 ANA5
Game 3:ANA1 BOS7
Game 4:ANA7 BOS4
Game 5:BOS1 ANA2

Championship Series
Angels vs. Yankees
Game 1:ANA1 NYY13
Game 2:ANA7 NYY3
Game 3:NYY11 ANA9
Game 4:NYY4 ANA7
Game 5:NYY5 ANA2
Game 6:ANA9 NYY4
Game 7:ANA0 NYY14!

Phillies vs. Cardinals
Game 1:STL8 PHI0
Game 2:STL7 PHI5
Game 3:PHI2 STL4
Game 4:PHI7 STL0
Game 5:PHI1 STL2(13 Inn.)
World Series

Yankees vs. Cardinals
Game 1:STL0 NYY4
Game 2:STL5 NYY6
Game 3:NYY2 STL5
Game 4:NYY5 STL4
Game 5:STL3 NYY1
Game 6:NYY11 STL4
Yankees win the World Series.

Cy Young Winners:
AL:Curt Schilling(19-8 3.13 ERA 237K, led AL in K)
NL:Kevin Millwood(18-6 2.65 ERA 204K, led NL in Wins)

MVP
AL:Alex Rodriguez(.300/41/124)
NL:Andruw Jones(.299/46/125, GG Award Winner)

ROTY
AL:Michael Ryan(.261/7/56)
NL:Mike Hessman(.294/14/89)

The Colorado Rockies finished the season at 60-102 for the 2nd worst record in baseball. The team had little to be thankful for. In one of the bigger jokes the planet has seen lately, the MLB stuck a team in an aging hitters paradise, and then took away the one thing(DH) that provides them with jobs. So basically, the Colorado Rockies are doomed to failure. At least that has been the opinion of pretty much everyone for the last 10 years. Poor Dan O'Dowd. He attempted basically every formula to bring this team to success. He even made the playoffs once. Alas, 60 wins usually costs you your job. I was named GM on November 10, 2004, just after players filed for FA. Therefore I had little control over the resigning process. My plan for this team is quite simple. Get fleet-footed OF that can run down most of those 2B and 3B in our humongous OF. Have a plethora of power hitters, sacrificing OBP and AVG for HR and 2B. On the mound, we want guys that keep the ball in the ballpark, K alot, and BB very little. The main problem with that is that those guys are typically named Pedro Martinez and Greg Maddux, making them difficult to acquire. Basically I am going to nuild theis team in my own saber-spin sort of way. Should be fun.
Draft Preview:
1. Nick Downey(84 OVR, 92 POT) is the kind of well rounded starter that you build around. Think David Wells.
2. Andrew Ingalls(80 OVR, 91 POT) Is rated this low only because he has little endurance. Best pure arm I have ever seen. In 20 years, people will be saying Mariano who?
3. Fausto Munoz(78 OVR, 89 POT) my kind of pitcher. K's a lot, BB's few. Has a nasty habit when it comes to HR, but other than that you are looking at a new Curt Schilling.
4. Stan Wentworth(80, 88) has the best endurance of any of the starters in the draft. He also K's 11.5 per 9 IP. Nice.
5. Barry Vanne(68, 89) is a SS with all the tools. He has little control of the K zone but other than that is pretty much flawless.
So that is who I am looking at with the number 2 pick. Any suggestions?

[GM24]

I always viewed Colorado as a unique challenge. I had a decent run with the team in Microsoft Baseball 2001. I'm going to enjoy reading this.

You seem to have a good idea of what to do with the team. I'm eager to give you advice but I want to see you figure this out for yourself. :D

[thejimmyst91]

Well, the #2 overall pick comes down to 3 players. Vanne has the potential to be Edgar Renteria, or Miguel Tejada. He went 1st overall. So now its down to the pitchers. Ingalls is a closer and in rebuilding a team I can find that elsewhere.
Fausto Munoz won't pitch as many CG as Wentworth, and gives up a few too many HR. That can be dangerous in this park. That being said, Munoz is younger(22 to Wentworths 25) and has the control that I am looking for.
#2 Overall Pick
Fausto Munoz
Career AA Numbers:


367 2/3 IP 4.17 ERA 4.8 K/BB 9.10 K/9IP

32nd Overall Pick
1B Andy Ott(59 OVR, 73 POT)
Career Minor League Numbers:


306 G .234/.340/.485 139 BB 227 K 73 2B 55 HR

Ok, so he needs to devolop a little. I like his power potential, he is young, and he is well rounded defensively.
Somehow, that is all of the legitamate prospects. Everyone else is simply filler. Ott is probably filler, but maybe he can devolop and be useful by the time Helton is ready to leave.

[thejimmyst91]

Before I got to this team(I seriously just noticed) they spent quite the pretty penny on Free Agents. Richard Hidalgo was signed to a 7 year 50.4 Million dollar deal. Joining him was Christian Guzman at 6 years 37.2 Million. Wow, great job on the way out Dan. I mean seriously, Guzman has broken .700 OPS once in his career, hitting a robust .250/.281/.331 last season. Hidalgo is slightly more a bargain, though that isn't the first word I would use. He crushed 47 2B lst year(just 17 HR) so he may actually be a nice fit in Colorado. He also knows his way around the OF. This guy is the long-term replacement for 13 Million dollar man Larry Walker.
Lucky for me the Blue Jays are desparate for a SS, and will take on Guzman if I throw in a couple of role players, and a top level prospect or two:
COL Recieves:
Nick Lees
TOR Recieves:
Christian Guzman
Chin-hui Tsao
Chris Richard
Kit Pellow
Brian Fuentes
Tony Kauffman
5 Million Dollars
Lees is a pitcher in the Munoz role that the Blue Jays drafted with the 22nd Overall Pick this year. He has excellent stuff, but has never posted an ERA under 5.23 in the low minor leagues. Though he has nice endurance, it is much mroe liekly that he will end up in the bullpen. Guzman is pretty awful, but Tsao has a genuine shot at excellency. He is lucky to be getting out of COL, seeing as how he is the antithesis of how to pitch there. Richard hit 28 HR last year, and the rest are all decent players.

[thejimmyst91]

This is mostly a see what we have kind of year. However, I really do think we have enough offense to be among the NL leaders in Runs Scored(the park helps a bit right?), the pitching? Uggh.

1. 3B Larry Walker-Well, somebody has to play here. He can hit, and he might make less than 35 Errors...
2. LF Ryan Langerhans-Has a terrefic arm for LF, and isn't bad the rest of the way in the field. At the plate? Striaght potential. AAA Numbers were brilliant(.338/.393/.519).
3. 1B Todd Helton-Had an awful year(for him) last year at .280/.399/.462 with just 26 HR.Hopefully it will pick up this season, otherwise I am looking at a VERY(7 more years, 8.2 Million a year) 2nd hitting 1B.
4. CF Preston Wilson-This guy wants a 10+ million a year contract extension, and I am not at all sure that he doesn't deserve it. 57 HR last year. If I wasn't worried about his defense(it is good, but I want GG in CF) I would re-up right now. As is, we will see.
5. Richard Hidalgo-Can only be helped by Coors, and he has a pretty decent shot at a GG or two in the next few years.
6. C Charles Johnson-Uggh....9 Million for this? Had a resurgence of a year last year(.278/.367/.519, All-Star Appearance, real solid defense) but that was the only real offensive year he has had since 2000. It is his contract year, play for the contract Charles!
7. 2B Aaron Miles-Played very well in AAA last year(.287/.357/.417). Hopefully it will carry over into the thin air...
8. SS Brent Butler-Played well off the bench in limited time last year. Basically just a stopgap until I can find an actual SS.
The bench is non-descript. AAA houses two mediocre prospects. Andy Ott you know about, Rene Reyes is 27 and has a decent chance of becoming a good 4th OF.

[Lobsteve]

That's something I never though I'd see. Larry Walker in the leadoff spot. But, strangely enough, it might work as a power leadoff sort of thing.

Lobsteve.

[goyanks225]

I like the ideas you have for Colorado and I'm interested to see what happens. Good luck!

[thejimmyst91]

And now, your 2004 All-Ugly Squad(A.K.A. My Pitching Staff)!
1. Jason Jennings-Considering he was in Colorado most of last year, he had a legitamtely great season(15-9 3.59 ERA). He doesn't really fit my ideal for a pitcher in Colorado, but he does keep the ball in the park reasonably well.
2. Joe Kennedy-Ouch. 7.59 ERA in 33 starts last year. This is the poster boy for what we don't need in Colorado, flyball pitchers(40 HR allowed) that can't K enough people. Did I mention he is my #2 starter? Lovely.
3. Denny Neagle-Well, I am paying him 9 Million this season. He hasn't really pitched in two years either. Awesome. If it makes you fell better, he wasn't awful in AAA last year.
4. Scott Elarton-Right, NEXT!
5. Jason Young-Now, Now, I know what you are thinking, he has a career ERA of 9.00. Well you know what I say to that? Umm...kill me now?
Closer-Javier Lopez-Has oodles of talent. In fact if/when he leaves Colorado I have little doubt that he will excel. However, as a flyball pitcher who relies on his defense(but doesn't BB many people) he is best suited in Seattle rather than in COL.
SU-Felix Heredia-Had real success here last year. I think in the right situation he makes an excellent short man, I don't know about this whole set-up guy thing though.
Short-Carlos Dejeurigi-This is a real test of my theories. I picked him 3rd round, and he really is just OK. He has the perephials I like(8.83 K/9IP, 3.83 K/BB). The only problem is he gives up LOTS of HR, and my socuts tell me he is easy to hit(60 Movement).
The rest of my pitching staff is full of....welll, Adam Bernero. You ge thte picture. You know, i have two very talented relievers, but neither really K enough for my tastes....
And AWAY We GO!

[thejimmyst91]

Seeing as how this is a get to know my team kind of year, the theme song is:
Carry On My Wayward Son by Kansas
May 1, 2005
Overall Record:9-13(.409)
Pythagorean Record:8-14(.348)
Runs Scored:106 (4th in Div, 11th in NL)
Runs Allowed:143 (5th in Div, 16th in NL)
Team MVP:Todd Helton(.444/.505/.767 8 HR 16 RBI)
Team Cy:Scott Elarton(3-1 2.91 ERA 23K 7BB 27.2 IP)
Feast or famine on the pitching staff. At the plate, everyone except for Preston Wilson and Brent Butler are over .265 AVG, and the team has 28 HR, which seems pretty good. The pitching staff? Scott Elarton, Javier Lopez, and Jason Young are all under 3.00 ERA, while everyone is up around 6.00.
AAA Update:
1B Andy Ott is behind only Rafael Palmeiro and Tim Slamon for the lead in AAA Home Runs. The bat is there ladies and gents(.268/.379/.546) but he has already made 4 Errors.
Nick Lees is doing what I want him to in AAA(10.1 K/9IP, 3.3 K/BB) as is Fausto Munoz(9.76 K/9IP, 12.75 K/BB) but their ERA's sure dont show it(4.40 and 5.55).

[thejimmyst91]

June 1st
Overall Record:20-30(.400)
Pythagorean Record:17-33(.340)
Runs Scored:243(4th in Div, 10th in NL)
Runs Allowed:343(5th in Div, 16th in NL)
Team MVP: Todd Helton(.359/.452/.615 13 HR 34 RBI)
Team Cy:Javier Lopez(3.75 ERA 9 Saves 1 BS)
Well, Elarton and Young returned to normal so my [itching staff now has 1 real pitcher. Offense is doing well, though not great. Only one batter below .250 AVG(Larry Walker is at .236 but has a .370 OBP). The way my offense is looking I really would expect to be higher than 10th in runs Scored. Surpris of the year thus far has to be Aaron Miles(.359/.444/.468) tied for 4th in AVG.
AAA
Andy Ott is still doing well(.267/.375/.510) and the pitchers are still keeping their ratios nice(Munoz and Lees).

[goyanks225]

What's pythagorean record?

[michaelg123789]

Jimmy must be tired of dominating his friends in BBMO, so he moved on to this:D

Good luck Jimmy;)

[thejimmyst91]

Big Mess-up fellows. I went to click sim month, and then went out with some of my mates. I accidentally simmed the entire season. Seeing as how this is just a get to know you kind of year, it isn't a complete loss, however I was hoping to make some deadline deals. Oh well.

Oh and Michael, I can dominate AND do this. Multitasking...

Pythagorean Record is:
Runs Scored x Runs Scored
______________________
(Runs Scored x Runs Scored)+(Runs Allowed x Runs Allowed)

So Runs Scored squared divded by Runs Scored squared plus runs allowed squared.

It is a decent predictor of a teams Win-Loss record.

[Lobsteve]

So, just to be concise: 1/RunsAllowed^2.

How this predicts a teams record is beyond my little head.

And what it has to do with the pythagorean theorem is also beyond me. Though, admitedly close to the famous a^2 + b^2 = c^2.

But to get to all this runs scored and runs allowed stuff would be:

1) rs^2 + ra^2 = rs^2 (which is already false)
2) 1=rs^2/(rs^2+ra^2)
3) 1=1/ra^2

So either there's a colossal bloomer being made in the assumptions (ie, no typos in the formula :))

Ok, for some reason I have become strangely obsessive with this whole thing. If anyone wants to shout me down, please feel free.

Lobsteve

[thejimmyst91]

Sorry for the delay on the response.
The formula is not 1/RunsAllowed^2.
The formula is Runs Scored^2/(Runs Scored^2 + Runs Allowed^2).

It is called Pythagorean Record because it is using squares, its just a convinent little name.

1) rs^2 + ra^2 = rs^2 (which is already false)
2) 1=rs^2/(rs^2+ra^2)
3) 1=1/ra^2

Umm, not quite.
The formula in no way assumes that RS^2 + RA^2= RS^2.
The formula is basically number 2. Try it out.

[pogue_mahorsey]

at long last, I have an understanding of Pythagorean Record! You guys rule. I've wondered about that lo these many days since I read my first bit of Dynasty Joy in these very forums.

[Lobsteve]

You know what....I was way off, I apologize for my math :). Well, not -that- far off, just way off. I see how it goes now. I still don't understand what makes it a good indicator though....I mean, by the time you have enough data to predict it, the season is already done? I suppose a good approximation could be reached at around the 3/4 mark of the season as well.

Still curious.
Lobsteve.

[thejimmyst91]

Actually you can do it pretty much anytime. The larger the sample size the more accurate, but Rob Neyer keeps current Pyth. Standings on his page at ESPN. His articles cost money, but this is free.
Look at the bottom of this page (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/neyer/index)
Some interesting stuff going on, much of which you could probably tell by yourself. The Yankees have that large lead in the AL East, but that is mostly due to luck. It is really a very close race. The surprising teams(TBD and CIN) have been very lucky, and the Twins drop from 1st to 4th!

I have actually never seen the research that Bill James did to figure this out, but I am pretty sure he just stumbled upon it at one point. At least I think he is the one who found it, but that might just be me attributing stuff ot the most famous saber icon. For all I know it could have been Pete Palmer, or a hundred other guys. Over at baseballprospectus.com (a pricey membership) they go even farther, they have not only Pythagoren Records but Pythagorean 2 and 3, which are based on how mny runs you would EXPECT the team to score based on their other offensive attributes.

[egswanso]

Originally posted by Lobsteve
You know what....I was way off, I apologize for my math :). Well, not -that- far off, just way off. I see how it goes now. I still don't understand what makes it a good indicator though....I mean, by the time you have enough data to predict it, the season is already done? I suppose a good approximation could be reached at around the 3/4 mark of the season as well.

Still curious.
Lobsteve.

the other usefulness is to filter out 'luck', i.e., if a team a year or two down the re-building path finishes with a record of say 82-80, you might say that it's a good sign of things to come, but if pythagorean says they should have gone say 72-90, your enthuseasm should quickly wain, as they overachieved grossly, and would be expected to regress.

for the math, check the james's abstracts. and BTW, he modified the power from 2 to 1.83, finding the latter more accurate.

and how's this for timely, the Times just did an article on Pythagorean record (i'd put the link, but registeration is required, so it mihgt not work properly... it's in sunday's (4 july) paper under sports/baseball, at www.nytimes.com)

[thejimmyst91]

Originally posted by egswanso
the other usefulness is to filter out 'luck', i.e., if a team a year or two down the re-building path finishes with a record of say 82-80, you might say that it's a good sign of things to come, but if pythagorean says they should have gone say 72-90, your enthuseasm should quickly wain, as they overachieved grossly, and would be expected to regress.

for the math, check the james's abstracts. and BTW, he modified the power from 2 to 1.83, finding the latter more accurate.

and how's this for timely, the Times just did an article on Pythagorean record (i'd put the link, but registeration is required, so it mihgt not work properly... it's in sunday's (4 july) paper under sports/baseball, at www.nytimes.com)
I know, but dont actually own a calculator and squaring is easier to do in my head.

[egswanso]

Originally posted by thejimmyst91
I know, but dont actually own a calculator and squaring is easier to do in my head.
very true. i just do it in an excel spreadsheet.

[thejimmyst91]

Originally posted by egswanso
very true. i just do it in an excel spreadsheet.
Wow.....I am so freaking dumb. Shows you what use my 144 IQ is....i can't believe I have been dividing the squares of numbers like 756 for so long, in my bloody head! Jesus, I am seriously retarded.