Setting PREDICTED stats

[Clay Dreslough]

>what is the best way to do the predicted stats?

Baseball Mogul assumes that predicted stats have been entered that reflect a CONSERVATIVE projection for the upcoming year. Generally, we calculate such projections by averaging the last years with a sample of the player's entire career.

Thus, for example, it is better to predict Alex Rodriguez at something like .300 with 40 HR, even though he has 57 HR a couple times in recent years. Over the course of the simulation, he will have some great years (e.g. 55+ HR) and some bad years.

Most fantasy baseball and other sites (e.g. Baseball Prospectus) tend to use the same conservatism when projecting players. (For example, it would be silly to project that someone will play 162 games, there is some chance he will fall short but almost NO chance he will exceed that number).

Clay

[Scorey1974]

Clay...I am wondering since you bring this up about projecting players at 162 games played...Rotochamp has projected out the minor league stats of our prospects to 162 games played for all the players....Does this necessarily mean they will always play in 162 games if we input this in the predicted stats?....Would your strategies and also the player's health rating have a factor in this also?

Thanks for your help...

[sfbennett1]

i think he was just using that as an example, like A-Rod's career high 57 home runs ... there is a good chance he will fall short and almost NO chance he will exceed 57, so it would be inaccurate to project him around that number. but i could be wrong.

[jamesfinch]

I think that is what he is getting at. Unlikely to hit more than 57 since nobody has done so from the day that drug testing was announced......

[Scorey1974]

I'm only wondering about the games played...

[Chippy]

Originally posted by Scorey1974
I'm only wondering about the games played...

That's a good question. I don't think the games played thing has any real bearing on the numbers of games a guy ends up playing though(I'd assume their injury rating has more to do with that), although I could be off. Personally, if I'm editing/creating a player, I set their predicted games at anywhere from 156-160.

[boomboom]

if you project somebody to play 162 games a year, doesnt mean they will play 162 games, depends on your stratigies, and the injuires....Kind of like I project Ken Griffey junior to play 162 games for projected stats, he avg only 130-140 per year from 2004-2007, then it went down hill after that...playing only 80 games....

then he went to the bench.

Bobby

[egswanso]

Originally posted by Chippy
That's a good question. I don't think the games played thing has any real bearing on the numbers of games a guy ends up playing though(I'd assume their injury rating has more to do with that), although I could be off. Personally, if I'm editing/creating a player, I set their predicted games at anywhere from 156-160.
i always set games played at 162 when i create old-time players (and equalise them to the same standard). it doesnt make them all cal ripken's.